Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68394501034bc6c9c5633333ec86d102f6de358aeb4ab28426fd79457bddf8a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $279,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $256,147
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $279,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 267 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 18c | 11,090$1,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,123.68 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x689a…779ebacked Yes | 34c | 8,398$2,867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,531.02 | 225 | 9.8%22 W · 203 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed No | 2c | 7,770$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.82 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa340…f3d4backed No | 16c | 6,659$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.63 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +358.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed No | 14c | 6,132$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.37 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 74c | 5,006$3,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,298.8 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…55cabacked No | 2c | 5,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 117 | 30.8%36 W · 81 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 1c | 4,718$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.54 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 1c | 4,655$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 3,847$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,457.26 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed No | 25c | 3,652$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.07 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 23c | 3,456$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.81 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed No | 26c | 3,229$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x064b…eae5backed No | 7c | 2,953$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.63 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…f380backed No | 42c | 2,837$1,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.64 | 176 | 31.8%56 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked No | 1c | 2,645$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed No | 24c | 2,523$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.8 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b8…e9f3backed No | 2c | 2,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 60 | 20%12 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5f…356abacked Yes | 72c | 2,491$1,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.99 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.37per pick | 35cpaid | +239.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 7c | 2,463$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.31 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 45c | 2,445$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098.92 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4a…fc9bbacked Yes | 73c | 2,436$1,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.51 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eed…2050backed Yes | 73c | 2,240$1,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.59 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 21c | 2,142$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.88 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 50c | 2,067$1,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,032.19 | 186 | 8.6%16 W · 170 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 77c | 1,996$1,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.42 | 229 | 26.6%61 W · 168 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 74c | 1,843$1,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.02 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked No | 1c | 1,780$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…765abacked Yes | 76c | 1,633$1,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.01 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +4.3wins | +0.19per pick | 71cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked No | 18c | 1,502$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.46 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 26c | 1,488$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,095.14 | 276 | 47.8%132 W · 144 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d55…d5bcbacked No | 1c | 1,436$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 24c | 1,303$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$993.83 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 35c | 1,212$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.2 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 13c | 1,207$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,047.14 | 278 | 20.9%58 W · 220 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 73c | 1,120$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.42 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43f4…2234backed Yes | 49c | 1,028$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.96 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 10c | 995.87$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.47 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 25c | 959$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.65 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 15c | 930.55$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.23 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 80c | 921.34$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.23 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 48c | 912.09$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.49 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 37c | 839.79$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.72 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x062d…500fbacked Yes | 10c | 839.01$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.01 | 114 | 8.8%10 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea1e…2858backed No | 11c | 800$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 117 | 29.1%34 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 31c | 799.5$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.63 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed Yes | 29c | 755.09$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.34 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 35c | 730.02$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.84 | 250 | 12.8%32 W · 218 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 37c | 720.87$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.49 | 218 | 57.8%126 W · 92 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 24c | 707.84$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.29 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 17c | 704.5$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.2 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed No | 6c | 702.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 133 | 15.8%21 W · 112 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 29c | 697.27$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.47 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 54c | 691.14$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.49 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 30c | 670.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.92 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x271f…b8ebbacked Yes | 29c | 670.31$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.02 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked No | 30c | 655.77$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.89 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…486cbacked Yes | 31c | 644.56$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.34 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe096…be8ebacked No | 49c | 631.24$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.18 | 232 | 12.1%28 W · 204 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…57c1backed Yes | 9c | 620.4$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.19 | 217 | 6%13 W · 204 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 18c | 599.98$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.59 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ce…6b0ebacked Yes | 61c | 575.48$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…af41backed Yes | 8c | 564.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.78 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 39c | 544.56$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.56 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf92d…a225backed Yes | 9c | 542.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.89 | 233 | 8.2%19 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd32c…a4c2backed No | 38c | 537.71$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.92 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…68e9backed Yes | 25c | 535.24$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.01 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes | 36c | 527.49$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.08 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…cc81backed Yes | 80c | 507.81$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.81 | 167 | 41.3%69 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…23fdbacked Yes | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 154 | 35.1%54 W · 100 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…eac8backed No | 4c | 500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8d…b8f8backed Yes | 7c | 500$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 3cpaid | +708.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed No | 54c | 499.99$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.35 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30cf…704abacked No | 9c | 496.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabc2…cbadbacked Yes | 23c | 492.04$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.6 | 78 | 26.9%21 W · 57 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94f4…ea54backed Yes | 54c | 453.22$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.67 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca2…20e6backed Yes | 67c | 447$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.51 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6100…1c0bbacked Yes | 69c | 412.52$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.53 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b2…0d09backed No | 73c | 389.99$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa92b…e0c9backed No | 74c | 389$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.9 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 75cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 44c | 385.83$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.89 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4f…eb7ebacked Yes | 38c | 383.83$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.95 | 218 | 27.1%59 W · 159 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8d3fbacked No | 27c | 379.37$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.15 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…06edbacked Yes | 51c | 369.56$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.69 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 53c | 365.6$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.66 | 350 | 24%84 W · 266 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes | 43c | 349.94$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.11 | 177 | 28.2%50 W · 127 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x696e…1c38backed No | 6c | 340$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 28c | 334.21$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.07 | 210 | 63.3%133 W · 77 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8641…e3acbacked Yes | 68c | 331.02$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.93 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 60c | 329$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.13 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 80c | 314$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.71 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbea8…36efbacked No | 25c | 312.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 311.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.82 | 491 | 6.7%33 W · 458 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4473…28adbacked Yes | 10c | 311.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.59 | 184 | 19%35 W · 149 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 6c | 310.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.64 | 256 | 17.2%44 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…1418backed Yes | 50c | 303.4$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.52 | 259 | 44.4%115 W · 144 L | +10.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 47c | 300$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 191 | 41.4%79 W · 112 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…302dbacked Yes | 60c | 243.69$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.48 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 62c | 241.92$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31bd…5502backed Yes | 75c | 237$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.25 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.