TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$279,228
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$256,147

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $279,228 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 267 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes18c11,090$1,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,123.6854122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked Yes34c8,398$2,867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,531.022259.8%22 W · 203 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-79.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x017b…1ef4backed No2c7,770$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.827820.5%16 W · 62 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa340…f3d4backed No16c6,659$1,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,062.631625%4 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+358.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7505…2978backed No14c6,132$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.3716941.4%70 W · 99 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes74c5,006$3,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,298.856429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e2f…55cabacked No2c5,000$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7511730.8%36 W · 81 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+57.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No1c4,718$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.544568.3%38 W · 418 L+1.3wins0.00per pick8cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No1c4,655$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0862539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes10c3,847$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,457.262,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed No25c3,652$919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.0788017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed No23c3,456$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$794.811,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed No26c3,229$841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84157621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x064b…eae5backed No7c2,953$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.637439.2%29 W · 45 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed No42c2,837$1,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,196.6417631.8%56 W · 120 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked No1c2,645$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.452401.7%4 W · 236 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+675.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed No24c2,523$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.888018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2b8…e9f3backed No2c2,500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456020%12 W · 48 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c5f…356abacked Yes72c2,491$1,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.991172.7%8 W · 3 L+4.1wins+0.37per pick35cpaid+239.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xbea2…2d33backed No7c2,463$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.311957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid-9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e82…af92backed No45c2,445$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,098.924965.3%32 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa4a…fc9bbacked Yes73c2,436$1,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.519035.6%32 W · 58 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eed…2050backed Yes73c2,240$1,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.5910629.2%31 W · 75 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No21c2,142$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.8840719.7%80 W · 327 L-18.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No50c2,067$1,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,032.191868.6%16 W · 170 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-76.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes77c1,996$1,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.4222926.6%61 W · 168 L-0.7wins0.00per pick27cpaid-48.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes74c1,843$1,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.0233422.2%74 W · 260 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked No1c1,780$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4222023.6%52 W · 168 L+1.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8849…765abacked Yes76c1,633$1,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.012290.9%20 W · 2 L+4.3wins+0.19per pick71cpaid+28.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked No18c1,502$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.461,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes26c1,488$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,095.1427647.8%132 W · 144 L+10.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d55…d5bcbacked No1c1,436$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes24c1,303$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$993.8363821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes35c1,212$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.231621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes13c1,207$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,047.1427820.9%58 W · 220 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes73c1,120$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.4253522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x43f4…2234backed Yes49c1,028$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.961650%8 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+17.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes10c995.87$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891.4732917%56 W · 273 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No25c959$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.6530955%170 W · 139 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes15c930.55$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$795.2370616.4%116 W · 590 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes80c921.34$734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.2346521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No48c912.09$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.4924155.6%134 W · 107 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0957…77e8backed No37c839.79$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.723452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x062d…500fbacked Yes10c839.01$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.011148.8%10 W · 104 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea1e…2858backed No11c800$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8811729.1%34 W · 83 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes31c799.5$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.6339723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed Yes29c755.09$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.3410325.2%26 W · 77 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes35c730.02$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.8425012.8%32 W · 218 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-54.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No37c720.87$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.4921857.8%126 W · 92 L+0.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No24c707.84$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.2916750.3%84 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes17c704.5$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.278111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed No6c702.63$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7413315.8%21 W · 112 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked No29c697.27$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.4763414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No54c691.14$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.4910330.1%31 W · 72 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes30c670.82$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.9234833.3%116 W · 232 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x271f…b8ebbacked Yes29c670.31$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.024522.2%10 W · 35 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked No30c655.77$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.8928025.4%71 W · 209 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…486cbacked Yes31c644.56$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.34429.5%4 W · 38 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-62.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked No49c631.24$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.1823212.1%28 W · 204 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes9c620.4$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.192176%13 W · 204 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes18c599.98$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.591,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0ce…6b0ebacked Yes61c575.48$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8fb…af41backed Yes8c564.98$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.786839.7%27 W · 41 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes39c544.56$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.561,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes9c542.89$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.892338.2%19 W · 214 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd32c…a4c2backed No38c537.71$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.928253.7%44 W · 38 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbd7…68e9backed Yes25c535.24$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.011520%3 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-47.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes36c527.49$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.0832613.8%45 W · 281 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-60.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe62e…cc81backed Yes80c507.81$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.8116741.3%69 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe343…23fdbacked Yes49c500$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25515435.1%54 W · 100 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7a3…eac8backed No4c500$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.419124.6%47 W · 144 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d8d…b8f8backed Yes7c500$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick3cpaid+708.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed No54c499.99$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.3546137.5%173 W · 288 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30cf…704abacked No9c496.5$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.29348.4%45 W · 48 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabc2…cbadbacked Yes23c492.04$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.67826.9%21 W · 57 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94f4…ea54backed Yes54c453.22$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.6712828.1%36 W · 92 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeca2…20e6backed Yes67c447$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.517251.4%37 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6100…1c0bbacked Yes69c412.52$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.532213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-68.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51b2…0d09backed No73c389.99$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2841741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-9.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa92b…e0c9backed No74c389$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.91553.3%8 W · 7 L-3.3wins-0.22per pick75cpaid-29.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes44c385.83$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.8931624.7%78 W · 238 L-0.6wins0.00per pick25cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf4f…eb7ebacked Yes38c383.83$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.9521827.1%59 W · 159 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21d3…8d3fbacked No27c379.37$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.156540%26 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2749…06edbacked Yes51c369.56$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.697432.4%24 W · 50 L-0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-26.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No53c365.6$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.6635024%84 W · 266 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes43c349.94$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.1117728.2%50 W · 127 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x696e…1c38backed No6c340$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.259233.7%31 W · 61 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No28c334.21$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.0721063.3%133 W · 77 L+22.8wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+30.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8641…e3acbacked Yes68c331.02$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.931258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No60c329$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.1318358.5%107 W · 76 L+0.5wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes80c314$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.7159225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbea8…36efbacked No25c312.21$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.62951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes7c311.91$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.824916.7%33 W · 458 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4473…28adbacked Yes10c311.59$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.5918419%35 W · 149 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+42.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes6c310.25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.6425617.2%44 W · 212 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdb9…1418backed Yes50c303.4$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.5225944.4%115 W · 144 L+10.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+21%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86da…1cf6backed Yes47c300$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15819141.4%79 W · 112 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ae0…302dbacked Yes60c243.69$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.4813844.2%61 W · 77 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed No62c241.92$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.992740.7%11 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31bd…5502backed Yes75c237$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.252138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.