TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x898f…23f0

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
129
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 57 out of 100; worst World Politics at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT5735.1%20 W · 37 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick39cpaid+1.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 57 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$162.43
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.16
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+188.7%+$83.66
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.56
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.79
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.49
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+378.5%+$398.68
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$329Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$329.28
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.35
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.02
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$206.6
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+33.4%+$24.9
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$402Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$402.47
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$364Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+89.1%+$324.24
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+37.2%+$30.15
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$108.42
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$580Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$579.95
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$251Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$251.21
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$20.97
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+231.1%+$180.31
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$78.37
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+53.8%+$60.9
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$10.88
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$23.2
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+29.1%+$27.02
Showing 25 of 57 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT3647.2%17 W · 19 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 36 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.8
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$134.98
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,156Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+62.5%+$722.33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$6,821Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+31.3%+$2,135.87
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.45
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$484Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$484.08
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$312Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$88
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$84
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$118.63
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.33
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$63.63
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+300%+$30
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$31.19
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$227Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+354.5%+$803.4
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+284.6%+$148
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$225
US strikes Iran by March 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$244Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$243.72
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$183.88
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$324Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+123.4%+$399.91
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$191Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$191.2
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+297.9%+$428.94
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$246Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+137%+$337.25
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+26.6%+$21
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+26.6%+$42
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$71.25
Showing 25 of 36 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$330Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$170
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.8
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$237Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$63
Crude Oil all time high by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$44
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$154.99
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$819.99
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$54
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+37%+$54
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,276Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+34.8%+$443.9
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$398Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$398.04
All 10 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Nov 27, 2024, EST580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+67.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lakers vs. Sunsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2024, EST-100%-$37.56
Clippers vs. 76ersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2024, EST+81.8%+$71
Jazz vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST+69.5%+$68.94
Pistons vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST+122.2%+$98.25
Pacers vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST+163.2%+$39.63
All 5 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.46per pick29cpaid+781.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Nov 29, 2024, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dolphins vs. Packersbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2024, EST+58.7%+$9.37
Ravens vs. Chargersbacked Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2024, EST+69.5%+$63.49
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2024, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$132
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 27, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+149.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Liverpool wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2025, EDT+149.4%+$25.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 29, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hyperliquid launch a token in December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2024, EST+75.4%+$97.07
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+56.3%+$12.24
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$196Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$196.29
All 1 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Dec 12, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
World Chess Championship 2024 Winnerbacked Ding · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2024, EST-100%-$23.97
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.