Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdaecc996ed92b217159ed2cbb6d8b880a1dfd53298a90cd42a3003176794ac3a

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 9, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $473,152

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $473,152 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 386 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	90,895$2,520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,520.11	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefdc…e19ebacked Yes	6c	35,527$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	33	30.3%10 W · 23 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	24cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	13c	15,313$2,032 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,031.61	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	11,859$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.86	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	15c	11,601$1,757 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,757	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	6c	11,409$666 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$666.25	123	8.9%11 W · 112 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+54%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	10c	10,772$1,077 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,077.2	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	18c	10,348$1,902 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,901.54	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes	0c	10,315$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.55	112	4.5%5 W · 107 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	3c	10,262$317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$317.49	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe11e…ff89backed Yes	13c	10,245$1,282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,282.27	46	10.9%5 W · 41 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf366…b3f8backed Yes	10c	10,231$995 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$994.68	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes	18c	8,568$1,521 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,520.54	207	35.3%73 W · 134 L	+5.2wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	7,524$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.23	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	3c	7,478$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21a5…6760backed Yes	15c	7,148$1,086 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,085.62	147	8.8%13 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1d4…38d6backed Yes	2c	6,666$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.32	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	11c	6,477$745 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$744.51	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe144…487fbacked Yes	21c	6,465$1,356 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,356.3	104	21.2%22 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	12c	6,296$736 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$736.41	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	13c	5,881$773 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$773.45	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d61…2c99backed Yes	1c	5,558$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	4c	5,239$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes	4c	5,221$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.97	95	8.4%8 W · 87 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1577…7ef8backed Yes	0c	5,145$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	5c	5,104$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.95	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf2dd…1db4backed Yes	12c	4,990$617 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$616.62	160	9.4%15 W · 145 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes	9c	4,957$442 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$441.5	97	11.3%11 W · 86 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-63%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	17c	4,782$827 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$826.9	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	8c	4,520$339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.17	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes	5c	4,164$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.32	273	16.8%46 W · 227 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfb29…ea70backed Yes	1c	4,011$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.02	50	6%3 W · 47 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	4,000$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.56	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	6c	3,999$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.5	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	12c	3,970$464 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$463.6	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	79c	3,875$3,073 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$802.09	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	0c	3,700$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.7	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82fd…deb1backed Yes	14c	3,604$503 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$503.25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	16c	3,326$542 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$541.79	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	10c	3,300$336 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335.9	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	13c	3,284$417 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$416.51	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7354…430fbacked No	79c	3,232$2,561 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$670.93	188	77.1%145 W · 43 L	+12.3wins	+0.07per pick	71cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c83…d131backed Yes	3c	3,041$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.25	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.11per pick	6cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82cc…e8c0backed Yes	1c	2,968$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes	18c	2,939$524 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$524.29	179	19%34 W · 145 L	-10.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c3d…8d58backed Yes	12c	2,870$339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.15	36	8.3%3 W · 33 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd18…7c22backed Yes	1c	2,833$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes	16c	2,769$445 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$445.44	216	14.8%32 W · 184 L	-8.1wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes	14c	2,574$359 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$359.3	320	15%48 W · 272 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa7e…0332backed Yes	2c	2,572$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.82	151	5.3%8 W · 143 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	+227.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes	5c	2,477$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.9	256	17.2%44 W · 212 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c09…eea9backed Yes	20c	2,411$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+32.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	14c	2,400$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342.42	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	13c	2,393$317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$317.1	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	18c	2,329$414 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$414	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d0c…f55fbacked Yes	12c	2,318$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278.13	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	16c	2,201$356 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$356.09	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	10c	2,200$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.99	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	16c	2,186$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes	12c	2,178$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257.71	138	17.4%24 W · 114 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce26…f3e8backed Yes	13c	2,101$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$269.35	25	20%5 W · 20 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e9b…8113backed Yes	1c	2,100$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.3	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb280…35abbacked Yes	5c	2,059$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	8c	2,051$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.2	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5f8a…9adfbacked Yes	8c	2,036$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x754b…a66ebacked Yes	11c	2,004$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.41	94	13.8%13 W · 81 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5b1d…b3b0backed Yes	10c	2,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	86	22.1%19 W · 67 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	13c	1,967$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.92	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2511…5ae9backed Yes	7c	1,935$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.47	65	13.8%9 W · 56 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	11c	1,910$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.94	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes	19c	1,901$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$358	164	17.1%28 W · 136 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x45df…5b27backed Yes	1c	1,877$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.74	93	2.2%2 W · 91 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2959…bdf1backed Yes	12c	1,862$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.5	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-3.1wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes	1c	1,806$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.54	332	31%103 W · 229 L	+10.3wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	2c	1,800$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.8	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	6c	1,735$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.66	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ab6…75b5backed Yes	15c	1,692$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.54	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-3.5wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked Yes	15c	1,642$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.95	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes	18c	1,630$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	266	19.5%52 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes	15c	1,625$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241.02	158	19%30 W · 128 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda64…b94cbacked Yes	6c	1,598$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.57	137	18.2%25 W · 112 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbcc…2e56backed Yes	25c	1,503$373 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$373	114	17.5%20 W · 94 L	-6.2wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x79b9…7d93backed Yes	14c	1,499$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.9	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-63.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	20c	1,496$298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$298.17	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8405…cba8backed Yes	13c	1,462$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.12	53	32.1%17 W · 36 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-40.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b67…60aabacked Yes	26c	1,420$373 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$372.65	141	37.6%53 W · 88 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa25a…3e8ebacked Yes	8c	1,419$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.34	63	12.7%8 W · 55 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9df…76c1backed Yes	12c	1,362$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.51	40	10%4 W · 36 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-66.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	5c	1,350$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.2	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x201a…3418backed Yes	14c	1,272$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.7	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+40.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a1f…d43cbacked Yes	12c	1,261$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152	57	10.5%6 W · 51 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf33…7b7cbacked Yes	1c	1,227$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	36	33.3%12 W · 24 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8fb…3d55backed Yes	13c	1,224$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.81	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	17cpaid	-67.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	7c	1,210$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.4	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	11c	1,200$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x221f…fca7backed Yes	19c	1,184$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225	82	13.4%11 W · 71 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed Yes	1c	1,143$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.52	92	22.8%21 W · 71 L	+7.2wins	+0.08per pick	15cpaid	+151.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3aaa…c18dbacked Yes	17c	1,118$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.07	41	17.1%7 W · 34 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+219.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	11c	1,071$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.79	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd79a…9167backed Yes	20c	1,067$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.1	36	30.6%11 W · 25 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event