Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c368a013d3309ba927d2db000e195b9285c609a7cd3c628889e931fefd17fe7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $914,355
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $334,761
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $914,355 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4449…e977backed Yes | 0c | 41,087$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 590 | 9.2%54 W · 536 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 0c | 35,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 22,853$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 177 | 2.3%4 W · 173 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +467.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2179…bedbbacked Yes | 0c | 19,585$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 78 | 0%0 W · 78 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 1c | 16,399$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45df…5b27backed Yes | 0c | 15,406$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.85 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b76…c036backed Yes | 0c | 15,012$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 54 | 0%0 W · 54 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c0…fad2backed Yes | 0c | 15,002$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 0%0 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked Yes | 0c | 13,955$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 129 | 0.8%1 W · 128 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +675.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 0c | 13,700$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked Yes | 0c | 12,434$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.36 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 12,019$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 0c | 11,783$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 553 | 5.6%31 W · 522 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc509…c6afbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2415…9c1fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes | 0c | 9,880$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 342 | 3.5%12 W · 330 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 1c | 7,645$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.55 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf71c…4dabbacked Yes | 1c | 7,537$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.4 | 115 | 7.8%9 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…8985backed Yes | 1c | 6,030$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,476$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…5c43backed Yes | 1c | 5,467$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 380 | 10%38 W · 342 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 514 | 10.5%54 W · 460 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 4,489$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 328 | 1.2%4 W · 324 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 207 | 4.3%9 W · 198 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.86 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,601$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 730 | 4.5%33 W · 697 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389c…8005backed Yes | 1c | 3,400$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 109 | 25.7%28 W · 81 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 3,390$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 3,352$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,101$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 262 | 11.1%29 W · 233 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb72f…2c36backed Yes | 1c | 2,961$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,844$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,774$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 559 | 8.2%46 W · 513 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc2…2f88backed Yes | 0c | 2,505$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 9cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes | 1c | 2,504$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 480 | 6.9%33 W · 447 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 1c | 2,471$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0c…f55fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,318$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,115$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes | 1c | 1,919$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 384 | 4.7%18 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…3910backed Yes | 1c | 1,806$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…04e4backed Yes | 1c | 1,803$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 178 | 5.6%10 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,790$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 95 | 8.4%8 W · 87 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8646…ed78backed Yes | 1c | 1,739$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…956bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,722$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 479 | 8.6%41 W · 438 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8585…cbf4backed Yes | 1c | 1,718$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 120 | 9.2%11 W · 109 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba66…79d8backed Yes | 1c | 1,718$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc595…df4cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,592$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 1c | 1,511$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 499 | 19%95 W · 404 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x174d…bcf8backed Yes | 1c | 1,430$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 3c | 1,420$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 146 | 8.2%12 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee4f…89f5backed Yes | 1c | 1,379$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x701a…7c76backed Yes | 1c | 1,310$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 1c | 1,232$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03bd…49f8backed Yes | 1c | 1,222$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb35f…5ca6backed Yes | 3c | 1,150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x969c…1039backed Yes | 2c | 1,134$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb32d…c4b8backed Yes | 1c | 1,117$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3685…0123backed Yes | 1c | 999.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 2c | 808.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 398 | 6.8%27 W · 371 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3329…2f5cbacked Yes | 3c | 784.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +209.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes | 2c | 750.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 250 | 12.8%32 W · 218 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce9…ef59backed Yes | 2c | 482.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54cc…a28fbacked Yes | 2c | 469.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes | 3c | 452.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 301 | 10.3%31 W · 270 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x189b…c50abacked Yes | 3c | 431.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.