Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93a9a1ccf37a5bae88f3d0ee9b06b07f48fc9fd2282b760e719272d14ee5667f

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 10, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $637,276
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $117,116

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $637,276 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	0c	50,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	0c	26,889$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x907d…20c4backed Yes	0c	19,552$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.22	71	0%0 W · 71 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf71c…4dabbacked Yes	0c	15,163$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.64	115	7.8%9 W · 106 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff4e…5502backed Yes	0c	14,970$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.97	38	2.6%1 W · 37 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	0cpaid	+2,531.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc2…2f88backed Yes	0c	11,000$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.4	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	+2.4wins	+0.13per pick	9cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	78	0%0 W · 78 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	7,670$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.78	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	0c	6,750$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	0c	5,744$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	1c	5,558$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.67	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbaa9…4baabacked Yes	0c	5,241$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.48	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	4,957$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.91	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	4,792$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.11	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	2c	4,000$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.44	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	1c	2,626$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.06	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	1c	2,466$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.93	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	2,456$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.47	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x701a…7c76backed Yes	1c	2,391$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.16per pick	9cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04eb…1ab3backed Yes	1c	2,281$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-57.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa131…22e8backed Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	1c	1,837$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	1c	1,837$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.83	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	1c	1,422$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.35	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x189b…c50abacked Yes	1c	1,421$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-83.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes	1c	1,307$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.47	97	11.3%11 W · 86 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-63%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	1,300$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.1	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes	1c	1,191$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.19	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	1cpaid	+471%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x969c…1039backed Yes	1c	1,165$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	40	15%6 W · 34 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb35f…5ca6backed Yes	3c	891.19$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.02	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54cc…a28fbacked Yes	2c	822.5$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.67	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked Yes	2c	632.46$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.28	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x752f…cfd5backed Yes	2c	604.4$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.10per pick	7cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event