Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00bfa4e905c9b0434dce8347eeb4ea0a91b290e091f03270bd2b60eae0924068

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 8, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $270,097

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $270,097 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 234 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	24,263$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.99	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	7c	15,734$1,054 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,054.2	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	9c	13,193$1,155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,154.58	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	1c	11,744$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.95	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x562b…f85fbacked Yes	12c	10,000$1,190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,190	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f9f…19b7backed Yes	14c	8,066$1,159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,159.42	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+2.0wins	+0.09per pick	18cpaid	-12%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e99…72a0backed Yes	5c	7,501$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	145	7.6%11 W · 134 L	-6.0wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	3c	6,905$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	8c	6,833$571 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$571.25	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes	1c	6,708$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.37	164	17.1%28 W · 136 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f1…af59backed Yes	1c	5,529$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-88.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	5,264$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.1	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x25c2…08c7backed Yes	4c	5,200$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182	86	19.8%17 W · 69 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0b6…90a8backed Yes	2c	5,041$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	53	13.2%7 W · 46 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	17c	5,000$846 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$846.28	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6297…1302backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	11	0%0 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6eb6…19bebacked Yes	12c	4,283$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	97	14.4%14 W · 83 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	1c	4,254$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	4,225$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.69	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	11c	4,211$457 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$456.87	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	6c	4,100$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.48	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	4c	3,995$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.11	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd79a…9167backed Yes	1c	3,661$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	36	30.6%11 W · 25 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d1…105ebacked Yes	1c	3,354$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x539e…3ccebacked Yes	1c	3,150$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.11	125	14.4%18 W · 107 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	3c	3,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes	8c	2,950$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.87	97	11.3%11 W · 86 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-63%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f17…0ef6backed Yes	1c	2,848$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.63	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe11e…ff89backed Yes	13c	2,800$363 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$362.6	46	10.9%5 W · 41 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x730c…f933backed Yes	1c	2,714$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	8c	2,558$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.58	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	9c	2,531$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.3	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	12c	2,518$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	10c	2,421$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	6c	2,296$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.98	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	8c	2,269$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.44	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	12c	2,268$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.79	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes	13c	2,263$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	179	19%34 W · 145 L	-10.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes	10c	2,232$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.61	320	15%48 W · 272 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	5c	2,200$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.89	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda64…b94cbacked Yes	10c	2,180$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.73	137	18.2%25 W · 112 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	6c	2,157$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.75	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	8c	2,116$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.26	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b1d…b3b0backed Yes	10c	2,000$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204	86	22.1%19 W · 67 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	5c	2,000$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.44	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45df…5b27backed Yes	1c	1,977$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.2	93	2.2%2 W · 91 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	1c	1,890$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.4	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c83…d131backed Yes	1c	1,887$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.09	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.11per pick	6cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21a5…6760backed Yes	9c	1,828$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.4	147	8.8%13 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c3d…8d58backed Yes	16c	1,800$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287.5	36	8.3%3 W · 33 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x92ad…c78fbacked Yes	9c	1,764$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.03	79	7.6%6 W · 73 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	8c	1,754$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.83	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	9c	1,747$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.62	352	12.8%45 W · 307 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x969c…1039backed Yes	12c	1,659$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	40	15%6 W · 34 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes	13c	1,579$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.17	138	17.4%24 W · 114 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	1,574$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes	7c	1,539$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.11	37	8.1%3 W · 34 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x50a6…1c2ebacked Yes	13c	1,442$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.2	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-1.7wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	-79%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16a8…7d0cbacked Yes	11c	1,249$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2dd…1db4backed Yes	9c	1,185$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.86	160	9.4%15 W · 145 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	5c	1,171$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2959…bdf1backed Yes	10c	1,153$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-3.1wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x117f…4a20backed Yes	6c	1,120$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	68	8.8%6 W · 62 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+70.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	4c	1,107$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.46	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8ca8…18c7backed Yes	9c	1,090$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.37	29	13.8%4 W · 25 L	+2.3wins	+0.08per pick	6cpaid	+180.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	8c	1,058$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.21	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1db…36fabacked Yes	13c	1,039$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	-3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0106…0e63backed Yes	10c	1,003$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-60%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x76b4…37ebbacked Yes	10c	1,001$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x304b…57b2backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	84	9.5%8 W · 76 L	+4.1wins	+0.05per pick	5cpaid	+105%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	12c	1,000$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf516…1ea1backed Yes	6c	999.61$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.77	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67c4…4622backed Yes	10c	980.8$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	2c	979.97$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.17	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	11c	932.13$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.89	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	1c	900$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.25	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e6a…7155backed Yes	11c	873.95$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	100	13%13 W · 87 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c09…eea9backed Yes	11c	871.23$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+32.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4288…00e8backed Yes	7c	866.84$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.57	41	41.5%17 W · 24 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	8c	842.93$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.84	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	10c	836.88$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes	6c	778.94$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.7	216	14.8%32 W · 184 L	-8.1wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes	7c	743.83$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.05	273	16.8%46 W · 227 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf40c…7d39backed Yes	10c	739.99$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.4	35	17.1%6 W · 29 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked Yes	14c	705.22$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x79b9…7d93backed Yes	15c	693$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.81	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-63.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ef4…615dbacked Yes	11c	687.29$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.8	53	18.9%10 W · 43 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	6c	676.18$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.95	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d5e…9ee5backed Yes	13c	659.77$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.67	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+1.0wins	+0.14per pick	28cpaid	+34.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe380…70e2backed Yes	8c	649.07$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.6	61	8.2%5 W · 56 L	-3.7wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-81.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9c4…fe8bbacked Yes	15c	633.11$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8fb…3d55backed Yes	12c	601.63$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.02	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	17cpaid	-67.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	10c	600$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes	3c	600$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.8	342	15.8%54 W · 288 L	+20.9wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+32%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x30f8…5a05backed Yes	8c	595.31$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	8c	576.52$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.85	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes	14c	560.44$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.48	210	34.8%73 W · 137 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c66…3166backed Yes	10c	550$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.65	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-43.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c6b…28b6backed Yes	6c	536.88$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	14cpaid	-90%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbeb0…df38backed Yes	12c	502.24$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.69	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event