TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$146,997

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $146,997 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4449…e977backed Yes0c27,884$88 inLost-$885909.2%54 W · 536 L+1.6wins0.00per pick9cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dc2…2f88backed Yes0c22,577$47 inLost-$46.651822.2%4 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick9cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf71c…4dabbacked Yes0c12,578$36 inLost-$361157.8%9 W · 106 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes0c11,000$11 inLost-$11380%0 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x907d…20c4backed Yes0c10,665$11 inLost-$11.33710%0 W · 71 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes0c10,000$15 inLost-$1579811.3%90 W · 708 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c9,727$28 inLost-$27.771,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes0c6,529$12 inLost-$11.6482711%91 W · 736 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x969c…1039backed Yes0c6,358$20 inLost-$204015%6 W · 34 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc595…df4cbacked Yes0c6,324$26 inLost-$25.51160%0 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes0c6,098$13 inLost-$1338010%38 W · 342 L+0.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes1c5,521$29 inLost-$29.391,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c4,918$19 inLost-$19.033281.2%4 W · 324 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes1c4,000$40 inLost-$39.6770616.4%116 W · 590 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes1c3,443$27 inLost-$26.62,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked Yes1c3,353$50 inLost-$49.988610.5%9 W · 77 L-0.3wins0.00per pick11cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes1c2,846$15 inLost-$14.727304.5%33 W · 697 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-64.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes0c2,833$13 inLost-$12.871,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes1c2,769$26 inLost-$25.999711.3%11 W · 86 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-63%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes0c2,742$12 inLost-$11.5926211.1%29 W · 233 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-47.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d0c…f55fbacked Yes1c2,318$23 inLost-$23.18137.7%1 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick7cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x189b…c50abacked Yes2c986.11$16 inLost-$16.07911.1%1 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-83.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.