Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca573f5dfe99f6b56419d9b5d123e9c6a7d91235246272902449d2ee7d998c21

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 9, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $291,436

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $291,436 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 351 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	5c	34,811$1,685 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,684.92	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	25,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	9c	18,195$1,573 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,572.99	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	13,096$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.42	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21a5…6760backed Yes	9c	11,665$1,061 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,061.42	147	8.8%13 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	11,198$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes	0c	10,586$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.5	112	4.5%5 W · 107 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x05e0…8d38backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf1d4…38d6backed Yes	2c	8,888$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.87	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	11c	8,758$991 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$991.39	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ee6…4594backed Yes	3c	8,388$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.33	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe11e…ff89backed Yes	9c	7,968$749 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$748.57	46	10.9%5 W · 41 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	13c	7,123$893 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$892.91	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	14c	6,980$967 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$966.73	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x754b…a66ebacked Yes	3c	6,546$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$223.93	94	13.8%13 W · 81 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	5c	6,169$332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$332.16	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x45df…5b27backed Yes	2c	5,973$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.7	93	2.2%2 W · 91 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	7c	5,706$422 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$421.87	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	10c	5,259$504 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$503.75	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	10c	5,124$494 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$494.32	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	7c	4,846$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350.25	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes	16c	4,757$748 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$748.05	207	35.3%73 W · 134 L	+5.2wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cb2…b109backed Yes	9c	4,581$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	7c	4,567$327 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$326.66	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	4,546$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.69	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	6c	4,000$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	10c	4,000$405 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$404.99	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes	6c	3,803$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.34	97	11.3%11 W · 86 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-63%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes	15c	3,612$532 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$532.11	179	19%34 W · 145 L	-10.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf2dd…1db4backed Yes	12c	3,577$431 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430.92	160	9.4%15 W · 145 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	18c	3,069$542 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$542.48	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	7c	2,991$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.5	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes	7c	2,841$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.97	273	16.8%46 W · 227 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	8c	2,807$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.83	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	5c	2,784$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.86	352	12.8%45 W · 307 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	1c	2,700$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.15	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c09…eea9backed Yes	17c	2,564$436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$435.95	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+32.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	20c	2,494$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499.84	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes	15c	2,353$353 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$352.66	320	15%48 W · 272 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes	11c	2,332$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258.6	138	17.4%24 W · 114 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x201a…3418backed Yes	18c	2,262$406 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$405.71	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+40.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa43…d992backed Yes	2c	2,197$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.78	134	8.2%11 W · 123 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42ac…33b1backed Yes	1c	2,090$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.46	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.16per pick	34cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	2c	2,080$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.81	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	16c	2,047$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	22c	2,045$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79b9…7d93backed Yes	15c	2,034$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$314.58	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-63.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	7c	2,030$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.36	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1239…4009backed Yes	5c	2,030$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf22f…7714backed Yes	5c	2,029$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	50	12%6 W · 44 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+79.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2959…bdf1backed Yes	12c	2,016$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241.36	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-3.1wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	7c	2,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b1d…b3b0backed Yes	11c	2,000$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	86	22.1%19 W · 67 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92ad…c78fbacked Yes	13c	1,934$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251.29	79	7.6%6 W · 73 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x010c…6134backed Yes	14c	1,863$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.85	129	14.7%19 W · 110 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	4c	1,828$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.89	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes	10c	1,761$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.34	80	8.8%7 W · 73 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-41%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe46…8b21backed Yes	12c	1,758$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.99	218	16.1%35 W · 183 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes	12c	1,710$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.58	216	14.8%32 W · 184 L	-8.1wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	1,664$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9df…76c1backed Yes	10c	1,660$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.79	40	10%4 W · 36 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-66.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5808…0b74backed Yes	19c	1,653$314 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$314.12	39	28.2%11 W · 28 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8fb…3d55backed Yes	11c	1,628$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.16	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	17cpaid	-67.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x18b2…24efbacked Yes	15c	1,582$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.35	156	19.2%30 W · 126 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	7c	1,582$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.15	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3aaa…c18dbacked Yes	12c	1,578$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.16	41	17.1%7 W · 34 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+219.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbcc…2e56backed Yes	14c	1,500$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209	114	17.5%20 W · 94 L	-6.2wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d4c…2e02backed Yes	8c	1,500$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	97	28.9%28 W · 69 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb29…ea70backed Yes	2c	1,493$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.91	50	6%3 W · 47 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	5c	1,473$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.78	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes	4c	1,452$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.79	122	16.4%20 W · 102 L	+9.3wins	+0.08per pick	9cpaid	+40.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e50…98f0backed Yes	10c	1,430$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.62	330	27.9%92 W · 238 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c3d…8d58backed Yes	18c	1,400$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246	36	8.3%3 W · 33 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f8a…9adfbacked Yes	15c	1,364$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.27	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes	12c	1,351$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.1	264	11.4%30 W · 234 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a1f…d43cbacked Yes	10c	1,348$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136	57	10.5%6 W · 51 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa200…d145backed Yes	14c	1,340$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.28	44	27.3%12 W · 32 L	-2.6wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes	6c	1,337$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.56	147	15%22 W · 125 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+80.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2b6…9ff5backed Yes	11c	1,298$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145	84	20.2%17 W · 67 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes	8c	1,274$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	266	19.5%52 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	10c	1,200$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa276…2613backed Yes	17c	1,173$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.88	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-56.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f42…880dbacked Yes	18c	1,171$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.53	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	12c	1,170$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.77	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes	3c	1,150$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.2	342	15.8%54 W · 288 L	+20.9wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+32%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd79a…9167backed Yes	13c	1,150$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155	36	30.6%11 W · 25 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	6c	1,137$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa3cb…ef82backed Yes	8c	1,112$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.26	89	16.9%15 W · 74 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	+85.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	6c	1,110$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.17	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0f9…a9ddbacked Yes	2c	1,100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	57	5.3%3 W · 54 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes	10c	1,098$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.69	164	17.1%28 W · 136 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ab6…75b5backed Yes	14c	1,090$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.3	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-3.5wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e99…72a0backed Yes	5c	1,083$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	145	7.6%11 W · 134 L	-6.0wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	10c	1,074$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.34	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f1…af59backed Yes	7c	1,062$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-88.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c47…e9bebacked Yes	13c	1,002$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.28	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-54.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	19c	1,000$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.28	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	6c	1,000$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.2	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2511…5ae9backed Yes	12c	1,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	65	13.8%9 W · 56 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked Yes	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.94	181	23.8%43 W · 138 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event