Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9cd30f80ecd24186b99cc57153b494e50519ee2137a7825260d69fcbf54e0926

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $121,913

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,913 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	0c	12,906$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.31	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	12,627$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.61	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	7,435$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.61	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	6,035$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.23	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x95cd…62d6backed Yes	0c	5,844$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.1	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	3c	4,500$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.5	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1faf…3b02backed Yes	4c	3,996$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	3,803$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.4	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	3,670$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.91	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	3c	3,401$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.29	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	3,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	1c	2,709$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.55	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x92ad…c78fbacked Yes	3c	2,666$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.58	79	7.6%6 W · 73 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ec4…bfe9backed Yes	1c	2,598$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.63	165	6.7%11 W · 154 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	2c	2,587$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2094…16d0backed Yes	6c	2,545$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-59.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda64…b94cbacked Yes	7c	2,240$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	137	18.2%25 W · 112 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	2,182$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.03	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	2c	2,027$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.23	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dfa…e524backed Yes	2c	1,950$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.25	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	2cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	1,922$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.47	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0b6…90a8backed Yes	2c	1,715$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.59	53	13.2%7 W · 46 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes	1c	1,697$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.49	97	11.3%11 W · 86 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-63%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8303…d68bbacked Yes	4c	1,612$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	1,404$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.62	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb8fb…3d55backed Yes	8c	1,396$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.33	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	17cpaid	-67.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e6a…7155backed Yes	4c	1,289$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	100	13%13 W · 87 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a77…c57fbacked Yes	1c	1,250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.8wins	+0.11per pick	3cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5e8…79f8backed Yes	2c	1,250$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	4c	1,200$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.45	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes	3c	1,165$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.52	264	11.4%30 W · 234 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe380…70e2backed Yes	2c	1,145$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.3	61	8.2%5 W · 56 L	-3.7wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-81.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x87de…c1e3backed Yes	2c	1,116$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	51	9.8%5 W · 46 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3389…2411backed Yes	2c	1,089$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.32	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-63.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,033$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.54	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3685…0123backed Yes	2c	1,000$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes	2c	983.95$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.07	320	15%48 W · 272 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16a8…7d0cbacked Yes	5c	946.34$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8742…9583backed Yes	1c	945.03$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes	4c	859.95$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.43	361	13.3%48 W · 313 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc2e…d3e5backed Yes	6c	852.47$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	5c	820.36$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.65	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	4c	785.69$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.21	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes	3c	723.35$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.44	37	8.1%3 W · 34 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x185f…aa9dbacked Yes	4c	709.31$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.54	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes	6c	701.64$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.57	301	10.3%31 W · 270 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a44…0196backed Yes	3c	577.52$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	36	11.1%4 W · 32 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8ada…9cc2backed Yes	3c	525.26$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	4c	503.25$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.9	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d1a…86febacked Yes	6c	462.02$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.89	47	6.4%3 W · 44 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa5ce…7b3cbacked Yes	2c	457.08$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	7cpaid	-86.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b9d…68dbbacked Yes	2c	456.86$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	3c	454.23$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.26	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe76b…e02abacked Yes	3c	400$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	108	6.5%7 W · 101 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-11%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07f1…9f1cbacked Yes	4c	394.74$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77e3…9d0cbacked Yes	4c	369.56$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes	4c	345.53$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.94	121	6.6%8 W · 113 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	5c	303.94$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.68	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d6a…a1a1backed Yes	6c	229.49$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	99	22.2%22 W · 77 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event