Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7a1fbe80edfb7afe92f74e7651365848b69dc322c7cb70513180e41077fb3d4

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 10, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $575,834

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $575,834 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	0c	40,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	0c	37,648$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes	0c	22,688$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.69	78	0%0 W · 78 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x45df…5b27backed Yes	0c	22,014$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.95	93	2.2%2 W · 91 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	20,407$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.8	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x907d…20c4backed Yes	0c	19,553$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.22	71	0%0 W · 71 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	0c	16,575$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.4	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xff4e…5502backed Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	38	2.6%1 W · 37 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	0cpaid	+2,531.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc2…2f88backed Yes	0c	14,994$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.3	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	+2.4wins	+0.13per pick	9cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	0c	12,800$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.37	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	1c	12,660$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.34	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	12,402$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	10,712$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.75	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	10,585$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.66	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes	0c	10,488$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.49	129	0.8%1 W · 128 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+675.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	10,276$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.55	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	10,006$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.85	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee4…9d92backed Yes	0c	9,646$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.29	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes	0c	9,000$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	256	17.2%44 W · 212 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes	0c	6,700$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.75	427	19.2%82 W · 345 L	+23.3wins	+0.05per pick	14cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	6,171$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.6	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes	2c	5,506$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.47	301	10.3%31 W · 270 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x526c…b191backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.18per pick	62cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8ff…51babacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x860c…b8f0backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2415…9c1fbacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	0c	5,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.9	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	4,047$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.33	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked Yes	3c	4,031$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.14	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	1c	4,000$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	3c	4,000$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.5	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	3c	4,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	2c	3,844$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.76	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	3,743$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.02	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee4f…89f5backed Yes	1c	3,679$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.4	37	8.1%3 W · 34 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	2c	3,533$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	3,228$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.61	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	1c	3,156$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.09	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes	4c	3,130$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.12	80	8.8%7 W · 73 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-41%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa14d…2563backed Yes	2c	3,121$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	145	15.9%23 W · 122 L	-4.9wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	4c	3,000$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.11	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	3,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked Yes	2c	3,000$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	179	17.9%32 W · 147 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	2,851$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	2,767$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.25	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fa7…bb0fbacked Yes	2c	2,735$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.74	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes	2c	2,733$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.41	97	11.3%11 W · 86 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-63%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5dd…e40cbacked Yes	3c	2,565$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.51	58	17.2%10 W · 48 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec7e…a915backed Yes	2c	2,522$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.72	46	26.1%12 W · 34 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-53%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	1c	2,500$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	2c	2,463$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	3c	2,448$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.91	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes	3c	2,438$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.92	95	8.4%8 W · 87 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	3c	2,400$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.16	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	2c	2,319$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.36	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d0c…f55fbacked Yes	7c	2,318$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.65	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc9df…76c1backed Yes	2c	2,282$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.87	40	10%4 W · 36 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-66.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	2,270$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.7	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb29…ea70backed Yes	1c	2,198$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.89	50	6%3 W · 47 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	2c	2,181$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	2,084$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.23	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bc5…8a35backed Yes	2c	1,981$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.11	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes	2c	1,894$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.43	102	16.7%17 W · 85 L	+6.7wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf111…2a81backed Yes	1c	1,820$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.02	88	5.7%5 W · 83 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	3c	1,731$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	1c	1,586$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.39	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	2c	1,560$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.95	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	3c	1,540$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.69	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x063d…35c7backed Yes	1c	1,455$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.48	65	23.1%15 W · 50 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb2e…3557backed Yes	4c	1,426$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.76	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.10per pick	10cpaid	+123.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba75…adb4backed Yes	1c	1,401$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.9	24	0%0 W · 24 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	3c	1,401$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.21	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	1,348$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.75	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9df6…556fbacked Yes	1c	1,289$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.3	56	14.3%8 W · 48 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	5c	1,268$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.69	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes	3c	1,263$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.79	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x201a…3418backed Yes	2c	1,229$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.08	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+40.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	1c	1,122$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.29	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x969c…1039backed Yes	2c	1,097$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	40	15%6 W · 34 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	2c	1,079$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	5c	1,065$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.12	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3685…0123backed Yes	2c	1,056$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.04	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	6c	1,052$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.37	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	5c	1,001$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.25	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes	3c	1,000$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	212	15.1%32 W · 180 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e6a…7155backed Yes	6c	999.99$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	100	13%13 W · 87 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50bd…d20fbacked Yes	4c	999.94$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	99	11.1%11 W · 88 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x03bd…49f8backed Yes	2c	954.56$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.09per pick	8cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	3c	946.48$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.38	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	1c	945.27$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.54	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ec4…bfe9backed Yes	2c	924.59$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.92	165	6.7%11 W · 154 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x382a…b590backed Yes	2c	899.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	28cpaid	-74.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x304b…57b2backed Yes	1c	871.77$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.58	84	9.5%8 W · 76 L	+4.1wins	+0.05per pick	5cpaid	+105%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	5c	812.07$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.2	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x22c3…b145backed Yes	2c	798.69$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.97	64	14.1%9 W · 55 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb35f…5ca6backed Yes	5c	760.87$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc9db…4048backed Yes	4c	736.24$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	+1.7wins	+0.09per pick	24cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9ea…ea9dbacked Yes	2c	707$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.02	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.21per pick	29cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd04…2599backed Yes	1c	707$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.05	168	17.3%29 W · 139 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04eb…1ab3backed Yes	3c	649.75$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-57.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event