Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cc2ec6a4f7277769cf7ff32ecdb1b0cd9d47bdcf906151e556e5569008459a1

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 8, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $227,362

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $227,362 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 218 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	31,795$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360.42	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	30,394$1,124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,123.87	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	1c	27,467$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.78	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	17,449$843 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$842.51	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xff4e…5502backed Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	38	2.6%1 W · 37 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	0cpaid	+2,531.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d54…3e28backed Yes	0c	14,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x907d…20c4backed Yes	0c	10,665$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.33	71	0%0 W · 71 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee4f…89f5backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	37	8.1%3 W · 34 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6297…1302backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	11	0%0 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x72ed…93d4backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	7c	9,199$632 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$632.39	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4f9f…19b7backed Yes	5c	9,156$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+2.0wins	+0.09per pick	18cpaid	-12%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	7c	8,442$622 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$621.58	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	14c	8,000$1,125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,125.05	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x50a6…1c2ebacked Yes	9c	5,909$506 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$505.64	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-1.7wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	-79%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	5,644$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.59	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37e7…4a56backed Yes	4c	4,837$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.36	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	13c	4,805$649 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$648.57	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	4,451$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.51	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92ad…c78fbacked Yes	4c	4,303$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.96	79	7.6%6 W · 73 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	10c	4,238$406 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$406.36	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	5c	4,200$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.6	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc95f…26aebacked Yes	4c	4,018$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes	5c	3,834$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.65	97	11.3%11 W · 86 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-63%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe11e…ff89backed Yes	10c	3,700$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$357.63	46	10.9%5 W · 41 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3cb…ef82backed Yes	6c	3,146$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.87	89	16.9%15 W · 74 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	+85.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c6b…28b6backed Yes	4c	3,058$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	14cpaid	-90%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	3,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	3c	3,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	7c	2,951$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.87	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	5c	2,916$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.37	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes	8c	2,805$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.45	138	17.4%24 W · 114 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	5c	2,724$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.23	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	7c	2,694$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.78	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	4c	2,694$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.34	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45df…5b27backed Yes	1c	2,529$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.98	93	2.2%2 W · 91 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7186…3798backed Yes	4c	2,444$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	5c	2,358$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.1	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	10c	2,299$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf2dd…1db4backed Yes	12c	2,296$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.68	160	9.4%15 W · 145 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	8c	2,215$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2959…bdf1backed Yes	5c	2,029$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-3.1wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c09…eea9backed Yes	13c	1,954$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.39	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+32.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0106…0e63backed Yes	7c	1,886$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-60%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	1,845$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa13…9d51backed Yes	3c	1,836$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	3c	1,787$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes	6c	1,676$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.32	37	8.1%3 W · 34 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1c66…3166backed Yes	4c	1,640$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.72	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-43.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd44e…7b69backed Yes	6c	1,636$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	1c	1,584$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.1	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	1,545$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.92	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Yes	13c	1,527$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.9	67	47.8%32 W · 35 L	+4.9wins	+0.07per pick	40cpaid	+49.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	3c	1,500$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.5	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0b6…90a8backed Yes	5c	1,485$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	53	13.2%7 W · 46 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes	6c	1,455$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.23	320	15%48 W · 272 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	4c	1,422$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.98	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xe2b6…9ff5backed Yes	4c	1,417$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	84	20.2%17 W · 67 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	6c	1,414$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.61	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes	8c	1,405$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.69	216	14.8%32 W · 184 L	-8.1wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	1c	1,399$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.61	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16a8…7d0cbacked Yes	10c	1,343$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	8c	1,298$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.89	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc19b…7baabacked Yes	8c	1,295$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x117f…4a20backed Yes	6c	1,236$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	68	8.8%6 W · 62 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+70.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30f8…5a05backed Yes	4c	1,206$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf058…e173backed Yes	4c	1,197$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fb…3d55backed Yes	8c	1,183$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	17cpaid	-67.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe380…70e2backed Yes	5c	1,139$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.78	61	8.2%5 W · 56 L	-3.7wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-81.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9720…9aebbacked Yes	4c	1,108$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	241	14.1%34 W · 207 L	+11.1wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	4c	1,101$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.66	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	9c	1,081$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.26	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	4c	1,059$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.21	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes	1c	1,050$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.85	342	15.8%54 W · 288 L	+20.9wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+32%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	12c	1,040$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.08	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6eb6…19bebacked Yes	14c	1,039$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	97	14.4%14 W · 83 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef4…615dbacked Yes	6c	1,024$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	53	18.9%10 W · 43 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes	5c	1,011$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.35	121	6.6%8 W · 113 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa25a…3e8ebacked Yes	3c	1,000$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	63	12.7%8 W · 55 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	1c	999.97$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x26dc…e03abacked Yes	8c	935.96$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	202	22.8%46 W · 156 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes	5c	914.15$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.79	301	10.3%31 W · 270 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c3d…8d58backed Yes	14c	900$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126	36	8.3%3 W · 33 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e6a…7155backed Yes	13c	878.08$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	100	13%13 W · 87 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e9a…5f9cbacked Yes	12c	850.94$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-65.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x430b…8cabbacked Yes	6c	839.23$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf111…2a81backed Yes	4c	833$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.15	88	5.7%5 W · 83 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a11…5dd4backed Yes	12c	820.54$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+28.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb35f…5ca6backed Yes	3c	791.67$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f1…af59backed Yes	3c	783.47$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-88.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c8a…d7e7backed Yes	6c	736.5$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.4	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x010c…6134backed Yes	5c	728.76$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.79	129	14.7%19 W · 110 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc86e…b3e1backed Yes	14c	724.73$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	68	16.2%11 W · 57 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda64…b94cbacked Yes	13c	722.88$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.31	137	18.2%25 W · 112 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x969c…1039backed Yes	14c	717.59$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	40	15%6 W · 34 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79b9…7d93backed Yes	14c	713.9$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.03	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-63.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b82…c4e7backed Yes	2c	700.65$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.16per pick	34cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a5e…e8c2backed Yes	15c	700$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa320…b99dbacked Yes	10c	684.46$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.46	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4908…2792backed Yes	3c	662.81$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.12per pick	17cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event