Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8f275bcd8494868527071e9b42912d25940e46eade85da1646d8c760b52250d

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 7, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $213,862

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $213,862 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xda64…b94cbacked Yes	0c	23,650$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.07	137	18.2%25 W · 112 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	22,420$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.14	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	16,814$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.91	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff4e…5502backed Yes	0c	13,842$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.84	38	2.6%1 W · 37 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	0cpaid	+2,531.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	13,620$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.85	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	1c	11,884$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6297…1302backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	11	0%0 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	6c	9,083$507 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$506.69	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	6c	8,632$498 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$497.77	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4f9f…19b7backed Yes	2c	8,395$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+2.0wins	+0.09per pick	18cpaid	-12%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x25c2…08c7backed Yes	1c	7,751$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.26	86	19.8%17 W · 69 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	5c	5,610$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.19	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	4,874$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.15	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	7c	4,822$339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.45	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	4,335$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.19	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a19…c9d9backed Yes	0c	3,728$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	25cpaid	-74.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes	1c	3,647$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.4	44	4.5%2 W · 42 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-50.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	8c	3,583$292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291.74	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes	5c	3,526$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.11	97	11.3%11 W · 86 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-63%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	2c	3,345$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	3c	3,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6eb6…19bebacked Yes	13c	2,771$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	97	14.4%14 W · 83 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	6c	2,739$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes	4c	2,514$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.54	138	17.4%24 W · 114 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	2,416$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.9	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	1c	2,408$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c3d…8d58backed Yes	9c	2,400$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.8	36	8.3%3 W · 33 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	2,389$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	1c	1,996$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.02	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	1,938$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.7	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes	9c	1,920$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.63	264	11.4%30 W · 234 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	6c	1,804$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.26	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	2c	1,661$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.41	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	6c	1,635$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.01	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50a6…1c2ebacked Yes	2c	1,581$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.93	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-1.7wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	-79%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0412…2a75backed Yes	1c	1,564$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.14	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfb6c…8ca8backed Yes	2c	1,540$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2dd…1db4backed Yes	11c	1,443$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.07	160	9.4%15 W · 145 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x16a8…7d0cbacked Yes	8c	1,393$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e99…72a0backed Yes	1c	1,313$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	145	7.6%11 W · 134 L	-6.0wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd480…ddc8backed Yes	6c	1,184$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-2.0wins	-0.20per pick	30cpaid	-83.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2959…bdf1backed Yes	14c	1,178$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.22	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-3.1wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x573d…9a43backed Yes	3c	1,110$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a44…0196backed Yes	1c	1,101$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	36	11.1%4 W · 32 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	5c	1,101$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.51	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x76b4…37ebbacked Yes	5c	1,084$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes	10c	1,071$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	266	19.5%52 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes	6c	1,056$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.8	37	8.1%3 W · 34 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	4c	1,014$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.16	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	1,007$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.65	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe380…70e2backed Yes	4c	970.54$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.45	61	8.2%5 W · 56 L	-3.7wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-81.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5712…2bc6backed Yes	3c	953.53$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.5	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-2.0wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c09…eea9backed Yes	11c	931.68$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+32.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe2b6…9ff5backed Yes	9c	921.21$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.66	84	20.2%17 W · 67 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x010c…6134backed Yes	11c	912.62$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.46	129	14.7%19 W · 110 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	11c	910.25$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.36	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e9a…5f9cbacked Yes	14c	832.55$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.63	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-65.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes	10c	817.68$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.12	320	15%48 W · 272 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbf69…0c0fbacked Yes	10c	775.86$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+1.0wins	+0.14per pick	14cpaid	+128.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0b6…90a8backed Yes	4c	757.52$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.26	53	13.2%7 W · 46 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2094…16d0backed Yes	13c	757.22$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-59.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x969c…1039backed Yes	13c	750.61$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	40	15%6 W · 34 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes	13c	748.1$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.83	179	19%34 W · 145 L	-10.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x65ca…2d2cbacked Yes	14c	732.64$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.53	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.11per pick	27cpaid	-74.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x843c…8405backed Yes	10c	666.7$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.33	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-2.2wins	-0.15per pick	30cpaid	-77.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2687…9a43backed Yes	2c	649.69$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92ad…c78fbacked Yes	7c	636.97$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.18	79	7.6%6 W · 73 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	12c	608.47$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.56	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3159…5f35backed Yes	2c	578.95$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9411…c76dbacked Yes	7c	509.7$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	24cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a77…c57fbacked Yes	2c	506.12$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.8wins	+0.11per pick	3cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d42…6e4cbacked Yes	3c	505.36$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	64	3.1%2 W · 62 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79b9…7d93backed Yes	8c	469.16$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.41	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-63.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ab6…75b5backed Yes	13c	464.76$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.97	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-3.5wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0e3…8796backed Yes	11c	456.7$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	25	24%6 W · 19 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-28%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4eec…14c8backed Yes	6c	449.99$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.78	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	20cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes	9c	439.26$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	386	14.2%55 W · 331 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb103…382cbacked Yes	13c	436.16$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.3	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26dc…e03abacked Yes	5c	426$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	202	22.8%46 W · 156 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b9d…68dbbacked Yes	12c	422.95$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7684…15c4backed Yes	12c	407.95$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.89	40	25%10 W · 30 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcccd…1c5ebacked Yes	11c	399.71$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.1	45	15.6%7 W · 38 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-53.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes	6c	372.55$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.22	216	14.8%32 W · 184 L	-8.1wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes	4c	357.44$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.72	121	6.6%8 W · 113 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	4c	336$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.14	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes	4c	322.72$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.3	361	13.3%48 W · 313 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	4c	316.64$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.02	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1efe…ac77backed Yes	10c	300.37$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.61	99	10.1%10 W · 89 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes	5c	293.87$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.28	274	17.5%48 W · 226 L	+11.0wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5976…23f0backed Yes	14c	281.89$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.49	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	27cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59fb…a55bbacked Yes	10c	252.93$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.26	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes	6c	250$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	417	18%75 W · 342 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0bb…4808backed Yes	10c	249.48$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf9fe…c6f8backed Yes	13c	228.93$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	31	22.6%7 W · 24 L	-2.0wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51e3…24ffbacked Yes	7c	217.48$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	59	8.5%5 W · 54 L	-4.0wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	52	1.9%1 W · 51 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	8cpaid	-80.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	11c	199.66$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81cd…f3acbacked Yes	6c	197.73$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.68	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.5wins	-0.10per pick	23cpaid	-77.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes	11c	197.3$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.55	195	50.3%98 W · 97 L	+8.2wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b00…d547backed Yes	8c	192.48$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event