TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xcccd…1c5e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
88
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Weather, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 53 out of 100; worst CS2 at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT4515.6%7 W · 38 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-53.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 45 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.4
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$52
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$53
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.76
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$99
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.8
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.78
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$12.65
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$43.1
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$22.8
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$42.5
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$12.58
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$31.69
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$77
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$26.25
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$27.75
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+402.5%+$80.09
Showing 25 of 45 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 26, 2026, EDT1464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hawks vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.4
Lakers vs. Pacersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$4.2
Pelicans vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$6.9
Lakers vs. Pistonsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.4
Hawks vs. Rockets: O/U 228.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+31%+$3.55
76ers vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$3.6
Hornets vs. Spurs: O/U 231.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+94.2%+$9.7
Nuggets vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$17.1
Celtics vs. Cavaliers: O/U 212.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+123.9%+$16.6
Spread: Pistons (-11.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$15.2
Magic vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+58.7%+$7.4
Clippers vs. Spursbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$13.8
Mavericks vs. Celtics: O/U 221.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$14.8
Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 231.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+29.9%+$8.05
All 14 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT875%6 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winnerbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+37%+$8.1
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Yandex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+74.8%+$10.7
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffsbacked Tundra Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+57.2%+$9.1
Dota 2: Heroic vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winnerbacked BetBoom Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$7.2
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stagebacked Vici Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+25%+$4
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stagebacked Heroic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winnerbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+27%+$17
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2backed Xtreme Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$40.25
All 8 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.35per pick55cpaid-68.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
CS2 — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.75
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+59.5%+$13.8
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 27, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-35.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be at least 1,100 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+400%+$40
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$8.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick73cpaid+37.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+37.9%+$5.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bodø/Glimt reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.3
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.