Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2e0340a9b3c7efc3dc1088f70e8ff851f88745143edc8c4bfdb3583adc3b9b9

Rebuilt 1 day ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $549,477

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $549,477 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 177 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7be4…c73cbacked Yes	0c	48,966$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.13	25	8%2 W · 23 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+14%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	1c	41,508$346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$346.08	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	30,411$1,113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,112.83	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e65…0094backed Yes	2c	25,806$413 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$412.79	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	1c	19,444$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.44	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	17,220$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.69	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	17,210$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.08	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	6c	15,552$894 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$893.92	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaee4…9d92backed Yes	0c	14,758$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.27	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes	0c	14,194$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.87	44	4.5%2 W · 42 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-50.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	7c	12,631$933 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$932.51	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	12,178$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.36	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	4c	9,428$332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$332	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	0c	8,735$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.81	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	2c	7,990$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.44	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	7,941$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285.01	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes	0c	7,820$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.71	92	19.6%18 W · 74 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c3d…8d58backed Yes	14c	7,388$1,010 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,009.67	36	8.3%3 W · 33 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	7,000$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.02	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes	9c	6,860$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	138	17.4%24 W · 114 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	6,433$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	6,102$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.43	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	0c	6,072$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.14	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	8c	5,477$422 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$421.57	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	2c	5,052$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.55	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x14cf…d019backed Yes	6c	5,002$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$304.67	78	11.5%9 W · 69 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes	0c	4,212$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.73	427	19.2%82 W · 345 L	+23.3wins	+0.05per pick	14cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	4,171$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.85	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	3c	4,168$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.4	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	8c	4,000$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	3,900$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	3c	3,856$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.52	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes	5c	3,829$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.13	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	9c	3,783$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333.12	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	3,656$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.03	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	8c	3,538$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.88	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	3,500$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$301.23	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	5c	3,228$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.97	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	5c	3,191$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.62	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes	5c	3,088$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.38	164	17.1%28 W · 136 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e4c…60a7backed Yes	1c	2,955$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2959…bdf1backed Yes	12c	2,634$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-3.1wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes	1c	2,519$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.61	316	21.8%69 W · 247 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	8c	2,200$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.79	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	2,160$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9edf…0f44backed Yes	1c	2,156$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	65	9.2%6 W · 59 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x969c…1039backed Yes	5c	2,128$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	40	15%6 W · 34 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4324…ac73backed Yes	1c	2,114$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	2c	2,040$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	9c	2,037$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.07	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Yes	2c	2,000$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	161	10.6%17 W · 144 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	2,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67c4…4622backed Yes	3c	1,999$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c31…5f1bbacked Yes	8c	1,956$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	67	25.4%17 W · 50 L	+4.0wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	1c	1,939$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66d0…c8f3backed Yes	8c	1,829$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.38	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-2.1wins	-0.12per pick	18cpaid	-80.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	3c	1,828$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.32	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	3c	1,726$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.34	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x656a…7195backed Yes	1c	1,607$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda6f…e619backed Yes	3c	1,566$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.43	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes	5c	1,500$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.5	188	22.3%42 W · 146 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	2c	1,500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe76b…e02abacked Yes	1c	1,500$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	108	6.5%7 W · 101 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-11%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	5c	1,492$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.4	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes	3c	1,475$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.71	121	14%17 W · 104 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	2c	1,419$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.9	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfef7…8367backed Yes	7c	1,409$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	54	18.5%10 W · 44 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	5c	1,402$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.5	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Yes	1c	1,361$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.52	98	1%1 W · 97 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd0fc…16b5backed Yes	2c	1,329$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.48	104	12.5%13 W · 91 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-10%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf111…2a81backed Yes	2c	1,328$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	88	5.7%5 W · 83 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes	4c	1,321$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.2	37	8.1%3 W · 34 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	2c	1,314$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes	7c	1,258$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.67	216	14.8%32 W · 184 L	-8.1wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	6c	1,224$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.84	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2d3…a1a2backed Yes	3c	1,215$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.09	37	0%0 W · 37 L	-2.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5dd…e40cbacked Yes	2c	1,200$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.55	58	17.2%10 W · 48 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcfd3…4175backed Yes	2c	1,165$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes	14c	1,158$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	179	19%34 W · 145 L	-10.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes	6c	1,125$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.65	247	10.9%27 W · 220 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b14…2a35backed Yes	10c	1,100$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.99	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes	3c	1,100$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.1	342	15.8%54 W · 288 L	+20.9wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+32%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	2c	1,100$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.4	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa789…fb63backed Yes	2c	1,081$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.3	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2dd…1db4backed Yes	11c	1,070$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.31	160	9.4%15 W · 145 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	10c	1,044$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.31	352	12.8%45 W · 307 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	13c	1,037$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0106…0e63backed Yes	5c	1,019$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-60%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1169…d622backed Yes	2c	1,011$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.98	87	5.7%5 W · 82 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	5c	1,005$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c9c…6824backed Yes	2c	999.99$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	75	6.7%5 W · 70 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3c2e…e72ebacked Yes	9c	979.54$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.87	44	20.5%9 W · 35 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	1c	977.18$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.01	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xb5a0…fb10backed Yes	5c	899.98$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.05	140	26.4%37 W · 103 L	+9.4wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x405d…74b1backed Yes	2c	894.98$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.41	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe144…487fbacked Yes	5c	894.35$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.76	104	21.2%22 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	2c	885.88$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x41ce…12fdbacked Yes	12c	839.99$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.62	135	17.8%24 W · 111 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	2c	824.78$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.31	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	3c	817.1$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.63	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event