TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,208,478
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$652,996

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,208,478 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes0c38,368$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.371290.8%1 W · 128 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+675.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x883e…bdd5backed Yes0c36,361$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed5e…1f8fbacked Yes0c36,247$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1690…b584backed Yes0c36,034$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68ae…8246backed Yes0c35,768$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01dc…7c7ebacked Yes0c35,584$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7eae…81d1backed Yes0c35,147$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3574…27fdbacked Yes0c34,934$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c31,590$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.721,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes0c27,621$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.025535.6%31 W · 522 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b76…c036backed Yes0c27,591$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.59540%0 W · 54 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c0…fad2backed Yes0c24,336$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.34470%0 W · 47 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a2e…7405backed Yes0c21,243$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa01f…5542backed Yes0c21,217$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x915d…840dbacked Yes0c21,170$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b06…6757backed Yes0c21,154$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x187b…b850backed Yes0c21,152$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.1420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefdb…06b4backed Yes0c21,116$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa857…60d6backed Yes0c21,107$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f9…bcc7backed Yes0c21,106$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf10c…3474backed Yes0c21,095$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb02f…e582backed Yes0c21,093$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0534…b847backed Yes0c21,093$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf9c…7fa0backed Yes0c21,093$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4398…88b9backed Yes0c21,034$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebec…5f08backed Yes0c21,027$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81db…2f49backed Yes0c21,007$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.01100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c85…db08backed Yes0c20,925$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e4d…29fcbacked Yes0c20,925$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe412…bda3backed Yes0c20,925$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0536…2bbdbacked Yes0c20,917$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c64…86f5backed Yes0c20,904$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01e4…7166backed Yes0c20,840$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3004…26c6backed Yes0c20,749$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc382…2c2fbacked Yes0c20,731$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5416…6c49backed Yes0c20,655$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6680%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fcc…dc76backed Yes0c20,638$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1291…1632backed Yes0c20,638$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78e8…0823backed Yes0c20,635$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32bd…920fbacked Yes0c20,630$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21e4…1517backed Yes0c20,099$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.180%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8556…fad9backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20348.8%3 W · 31 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-78.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ad2…f570backed Yes0c19,927$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf70…5a23backed Yes0c19,530$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x743a…1b77backed Yes0c19,332$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbbc6…43c4backed Yes0c19,015$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.01120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes1c17,826$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.0913817.4%24 W · 114 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1169…d622backed Yes0c15,716$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.55875.7%5 W · 82 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick7cpaid+14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89d2…7dc2backed Yes0c15,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x185f…aa9dbacked Yes0c12,814$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9390%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb565…0921backed Yes0c12,400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d8c…7782backed Yes0c11,813$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x934a…7901backed Yes0c11,506$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes0c10,996$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7836113.3%48 W · 313 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c2…6b54backed Yes0c10,267$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick14cpaid-55.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2106…fa73backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc5e…4e9ebacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106026.7%16 W · 44 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-0.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf16a…1e3cbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick11cpaid-12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf848…a2e8backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c9,706$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.723281.2%4 W · 324 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c83…d131backed Yes0c9,404$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick6cpaid-39.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa90b…5330backed Yes0c9,341$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a16…e158backed Yes0c9,118$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20214.8%1 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick1cpaid-64.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes0c7,597$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.121,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dfa…e524backed Yes0c7,400$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick2cpaid-38.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes0c6,892$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4826211.1%29 W · 233 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-47.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes0c6,334$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1026411.4%30 W · 234 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes1c6,332$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.3350913.8%70 W · 439 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes0c5,207$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.861,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes0c5,024$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165598.2%46 W · 513 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076b…9eaebacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a20…ab28backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf370…ce25backed Yes0c5,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick6cpaid-12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfada…cd6dbacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-67.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc14…a665backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0b6…90a8backed Yes0c4,658$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155313.2%7 W · 46 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick9cpaid-10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f9f…19b7backed Yes0c4,517$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152227.3%6 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick18cpaid-12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e99…72a0backed Yes0c4,121$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151457.6%11 W · 134 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-37.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe855…04cdbacked Yes0c3,922$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101010%1 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-66.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes1c3,577$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0262539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes0c3,574$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.997304.5%33 W · 697 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-64.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes0c3,343$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1412213.9%17 W · 105 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-63.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8303…d68bbacked Yes1c3,016$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26120%0 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a44…0196backed Yes0c2,437$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103611.1%4 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5763…22b7backed Yes1c2,369$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-78.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaff2…9070backed Yes1c2,353$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2090%0 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes1c2,011$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.362,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes1c1,904$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6132015%48 W · 272 L+1.4wins0.00per pick15cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4c1…91e4backed Yes1c1,566$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a34…6c6cbacked Yes1c1,318$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105812.1%7 W · 51 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.