Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c58b23869c9f2e837fc92b686c45ae3d05deeb126304d5ff1fa0228c2342e94

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $381,427

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $381,427 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 162 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	0c	36,444$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.78	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	25,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	24,239$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.2	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	20,196$727 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$726.72	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	0c	15,105$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.1	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	3c	13,271$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$388	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	13,225$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.88	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	12c	12,631$1,499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,499.17	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	12,111$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.76	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	6c	10,610$603 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$603.35	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	10,438$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7be4…c73cbacked Yes	0c	10,269$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.34	25	8%2 W · 23 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+14%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	1c	9,253$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.51	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa128…541ebacked Yes	2c	8,500$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+127.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x86f7…4edbbacked Yes	3c	6,812$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	25	12%3 W · 22 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+83.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a16…e158backed Yes	0c	6,765$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	1cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes	0c	6,100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	427	19.2%82 W · 345 L	+23.3wins	+0.05per pick	14cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	0c	5,993$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.98	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	5,920$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	5,882$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.67	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	5c	4,825$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.96	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9edf…0f44backed Yes	1c	4,554$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.41	65	9.2%6 W · 59 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	1c	4,480$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.59	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	5c	4,448$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.41	123	8.9%11 W · 112 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+54%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	4,200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.1	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d8d…b8f8backed Yes	0c	4,200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.53	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+1.8wins	+0.20per pick	3cpaid	+708.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	8c	4,000$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2dd…1db4backed Yes	14c	3,961$573 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$572.72	160	9.4%15 W · 145 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	4c	3,574$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.51	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	3,435$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.78	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes	10c	3,326$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$321.77	138	17.4%24 W · 114 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	13c	3,270$411 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$411.24	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14cf…d019backed Yes	5c	3,240$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.16	78	11.5%9 W · 69 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	8c	2,386$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.7	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	3c	2,289$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.45	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x85f0…62ebbacked Yes	11c	2,275$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247	101	14.9%15 W · 86 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+47.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e4c…60a7backed Yes	1c	2,111$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Yes	1c	2,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	161	10.6%17 W · 144 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	6c	2,000$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.58	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c3d…8d58backed Yes	15c	2,000$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.22	36	8.3%3 W · 33 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3636…34c4backed Yes	1c	1,890$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.12	43	7%3 W · 40 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b1d…b3b0backed Yes	17c	1,804$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$304.57	86	22.1%19 W · 67 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	1,760$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.1	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x330b…42debacked Yes	13c	1,722$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.96	38	26.3%10 W · 28 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes	11c	1,717$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.69	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2959…bdf1backed Yes	13c	1,706$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.4	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-3.1wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	13c	1,624$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	1c	1,603$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	1,562$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2d3…a1a2backed Yes	3c	1,550$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.3	37	0%0 W · 37 L	-2.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes	16c	1,528$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	179	19%34 W · 145 L	-10.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x66d0…c8f3backed Yes	13c	1,508$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.07	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-2.1wins	-0.12per pick	18cpaid	-80.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes	4c	1,500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.5	188	22.3%42 W · 146 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes	4c	1,460$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.7	342	15.8%54 W · 288 L	+20.9wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+32%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	6c	1,400$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.2	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	6c	1,383$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.89	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	7c	1,357$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.39	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b14…2a35backed Yes	7c	1,350$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.91	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5725…5879backed Yes	19c	1,327$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.42	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.28per pick	22cpaid	+91.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb29…ea70backed Yes	1c	1,302$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.6	50	6%3 W · 47 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	10c	1,299$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.4	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc47b…9843backed Yes	2c	1,198$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	40	17.5%7 W · 33 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a34…6c6cbacked Yes	1c	1,184$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	1c	1,169$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.41	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	3c	1,120$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.25	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0994…d307backed Yes	17c	1,097$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.99	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda6f…e619backed Yes	7c	1,052$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.45	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes	1c	1,038$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.74	118	5.9%7 W · 111 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1169…d622backed Yes	2c	1,030$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	87	5.7%5 W · 82 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	13c	1,009$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18d7…64ccbacked Yes	12c	1,000$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115	53	17%9 W · 44 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Yes	2c	999.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	177	9%16 W · 161 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-70.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x26f8…fea1backed Yes	13c	999.98$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbe77…1449backed Yes	2c	867.3$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd832…19b7backed Yes	2c	850$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4348…ac28backed Yes	6c	833.57$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.01	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-86.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb941…3647backed Yes	11c	794.87$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	35	22.9%8 W · 27 L	+2.0wins	+0.06per pick	17cpaid	+58.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c2e…e72ebacked Yes	8c	730.92$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.47	44	20.5%9 W · 35 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a1f…d43cbacked Yes	2c	726.55$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	57	10.5%6 W · 51 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce5a…0a70backed Yes	9c	700.26$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.88	37	18.9%7 W · 30 L	+2.7wins	+0.07per pick	12cpaid	+152.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes	6c	655.74$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.34	247	10.9%27 W · 220 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecc7…01e0backed Yes	8c	625$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	28	3.6%1 W · 27 L	-2.5wins	-0.09per pick	13cpaid	-75.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xca7f…cccdbacked Yes	12c	622.73$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.5	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7841…7273backed Yes	13c	609$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.08	77	14.3%11 W · 66 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	10c	600$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x666a…4bf0backed Yes	8c	600$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	181	7.7%14 W · 167 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	12c	595.77$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.29	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4eec…14c8backed Yes	2c	564.87$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	20cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	12c	508$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.96	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes	3c	500$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	226	10.6%24 W · 202 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0568…f532backed Yes	12c	500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-2.0wins	-0.08per pick	15cpaid	-41.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3685…0123backed Yes	2c	499.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5bc…96c0backed Yes	3c	499.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	104	4.8%5 W · 99 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+55.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes	12c	499.98$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	488	19.3%94 W · 394 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbce8…b49bbacked Yes	3c	494$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.3	71	15.5%11 W · 60 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes	14c	455$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.97	350	24%84 W · 266 L	-10.5wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b9d…68dbbacked Yes	5c	450$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x540a…41aebacked Yes	12c	410.15$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.55	53	18.9%10 W · 43 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes	10c	405.67$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.68	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event