Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2d5d76dc8f766625d64a1addecb9d5f60cac8d9fe1a355a68a2de8a0746de9b

Rebuilt 47 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $114,710

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,710 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf1d4…38d6backed Yes	0c	14,365$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.57	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	13,605$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.61	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a16…e158backed Yes	0c	11,375$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	1cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	3c	9,495$287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287.35	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	9,068$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.82	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	7,216$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.15	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	5,795$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.56	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	3,684$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.46	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	2c	3,200$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.8	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes	2c	2,526$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.71	23	13%3 W · 20 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	2,339$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.61	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	2c	2,252$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.28	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes	2c	1,743$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.31	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	1c	1,651$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.67	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31c4…622fbacked Yes	1c	1,539$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.08	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	+2.5wins	+0.13per pick	18cpaid	+46.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	1c	1,407$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.55	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	2c	1,300$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.92	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	1,140$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.08	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	2c	1,112$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.07	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	1c	1,080$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.26	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	3c	1,012$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.33	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e53…58e1backed Yes	2c	1,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	110	9.1%10 W · 100 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	1c	949.14$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.36	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9447…91f2backed Yes	2c	598.1$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	27	0%0 W · 27 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	3c	499.97$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event