Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd643d9b56b62d2a17e995a803bab238dd0dd1dace08f8b3dadbc63fbe1841060

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,312,479

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,312,479 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 873 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	15c	114,650$17,616 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17,615.91	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	13c	56,846$7,453 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,453.11	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	17c	53,317$8,993 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,992.65	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	17c	32,720$5,514 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,513.91	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f1…af59backed Yes	0c	31,366$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-88.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No	79c	30,579$24,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,378.97	108	57.4%62 W · 46 L	-6.6wins	-0.06per pick	64cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	14c	28,128$3,859 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,858.62	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5331…69d8backed No	77c	23,000$17,710 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,289.97	61	41%25 W · 36 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	35cpaid	+132.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes	21c	22,523$4,769 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,768.8	207	35.3%73 W · 134 L	+5.2wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	34c	16,942$5,807 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,807.48	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	18c	13,319$2,459 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,459.03	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb29…ea70backed Yes	0c	12,338$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.68	50	6%3 W · 47 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No	80c	12,035$9,600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,435.31	93	55.9%52 W · 41 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	62cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd84b…0df3backed Yes	19c	11,055$2,125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,124.58	117	25.6%30 W · 87 L	-7.3wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	22c	10,823$2,428 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,427.82	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	12c	10,749$1,292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,292.33	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	15c	10,347$1,550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,550.15	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes	19c	9,330$1,779 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,778.82	316	21.8%69 W · 247 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	15c	8,851$1,360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,360.28	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	15c	8,528$1,317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,316.57	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	25c	8,525$2,096 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,096.4	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes	12c	8,300$1,035 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,034.54	248	15.3%38 W · 210 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02b4…7092backed Yes	30c	8,000$2,410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,409.73	83	8.4%7 W · 76 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-69.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed No	43c	7,880$3,376 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,504.38	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c1…1215backed Yes	23c	7,446$1,697 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,696.76	46	21.7%10 W · 36 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes	1c	6,666$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	87	19.5%17 W · 70 L	+5.9wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b14…2a35backed Yes	14c	6,591$890 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$890.3	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	8c	6,528$506 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$506.37	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	5c	5,993$281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.49	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes	8c	5,943$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480.31	44	4.5%2 W · 42 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-50.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes	4c	5,670$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.88	92	19.6%18 W · 74 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf360…6726backed No	73c	5,631$4,090 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,541.04	108	24.1%26 W · 82 L	-5.9wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed Yes	9c	5,607$518 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$518.35	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes	19c	5,330$1,024 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,023.95	320	15%48 W · 272 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes	9c	5,238$449 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$449.07	118	9.3%11 W · 107 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes	11c	5,002$559 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$558.76	164	17.1%28 W · 136 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	7c	4,972$369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$368.83	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	14c	4,919$705 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$705	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	26c	4,915$1,276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,275.96	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	4,649$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.35	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa25a…3e8ebacked Yes	7c	4,446$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308.36	63	12.7%8 W · 55 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	21c	4,336$907 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$907.07	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeeb9…6f7abacked No	79c	4,274$3,375 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$899.22	56	53.6%30 W · 26 L	-4.7wins	-0.08per pick	62cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	24c	4,237$999 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$999.01	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes	36c	4,058$1,480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,480.28	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	-4.2wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d61…2c99backed Yes	14c	4,052$555 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$554.73	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed Yes	17c	4,000$679 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$679.34	107	27.1%29 W · 78 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	12c	3,935$465 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$464.59	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x294a…bbbabacked Yes	41c	3,776$1,543 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,542.84	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	+2.2wins	+0.08per pick	19cpaid	+210.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x478e…a576backed Yes	22c	3,746$825 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$824.97	96	16.7%16 W · 80 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac3…5a50backed Yes	20c	3,701$736 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$735.9	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	32cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x611b…9b3dbacked Yes	9c	3,693$317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316.84	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	+39.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes	4c	3,633$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.3	273	16.8%46 W · 227 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes	13c	3,594$466 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$466.43	158	19%30 W · 128 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8556…fad9backed Yes	25c	3,576$906 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$906	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-78.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec7e…a915backed Yes	10c	3,509$354 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$353.69	46	26.1%12 W · 34 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-53%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	5c	3,500$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.1	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	3,500$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.7	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae00…f7b0backed No	78c	3,468$2,694 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$773.92	62	43.5%27 W · 35 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-16%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes	20c	3,421$670 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$669.56	303	17.2%52 W · 251 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes	26c	3,404$890 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$890.1	216	14.8%32 W · 184 L	-8.1wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	11c	3,395$361 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360.89	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c96…1959backed No	60c	3,320$2,002 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,317.88	52	28.8%15 W · 37 L	+3.1wins	+0.06per pick	23cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8aa…a2ccbacked Yes	36c	3,275$1,194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,193.57	75	36%27 W · 48 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	+11%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	35c	3,266$1,153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,153.4	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf25e…f9c0backed Yes	20c	3,242$654 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$653.77	48	22.9%11 W · 37 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed No	62c	3,108$1,936 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,172.51	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9df…76c1backed Yes	23c	3,106$703 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$703.05	40	10%4 W · 36 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-66.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e6a…7155backed Yes	24c	3,089$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750	100	13%13 W · 87 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes	24c	3,058$745 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$745.22	179	19%34 W · 145 L	-10.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	3,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	4c	2,918$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.2	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes	26c	2,891$760 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$759.65	55	38.2%21 W · 34 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a67…00f7backed No	75c	2,887$2,163 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$723.58	66	34.8%23 W · 43 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	+57%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	16c	2,852$465 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$465.38	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6eb6…19bebacked Yes	14c	2,801$396 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$395.6	97	14.4%14 W · 83 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4a…4896backed Yes	13c	2,768$353 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$353.14	45	26.7%12 W · 33 L	-2.3wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes	4c	2,667$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.82	247	10.9%27 W · 220 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes	10c	2,648$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.8	292	27.7%81 W · 211 L	+7.3wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-12%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	23c	2,630$603 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$602.71	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e9a…5f9cbacked Yes	17c	2,528$435 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$434.79	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-65.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28a0…9884backed Yes	5c	2,510$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.52	38	23.7%9 W · 29 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-24%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a7e…1cc7backed Yes	21c	2,500$512 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$512.5	56	35.7%20 W · 36 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e83…30dabacked Yes	12c	2,442$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$301.17	94	23.4%22 W · 72 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x554a…a8f7backed Yes	37c	2,422$902 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$902	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.3wins	-0.19per pick	47cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	32c	2,352$755 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$755	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	3c	2,320$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.19	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	10c	2,320$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	27c	2,304$626 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$626.48	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	7c	2,259$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.44	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbcc…2e56backed Yes	28c	2,209$624 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$624	114	17.5%20 W · 94 L	-6.2wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x864d…64afbacked Yes	9c	2,115$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.04	122	19.7%24 W · 98 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes	17c	2,108$354 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$353.91	138	17.4%24 W · 114 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	1c	2,082$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.57	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	13c	2,037$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	5c	2,030$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.39	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4243…47a8backed Yes	17c	2,025$339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$338.9	57	19.3%11 W · 46 L	-3.8wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed Yes	19c	2,000$389 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$389	154	13%20 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Yes	28c	2,000$554 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$553.77	67	47.8%32 W · 35 L	+4.9wins	+0.07per pick	40cpaid	+49.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	9c	2,000$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.59	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event