Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xede41213f94b10a477cb0f7c4afc53ed63b11fb08e1cfab5dcae84c7b90c8668

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $143,144

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $143,144 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	24,970$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.97	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff4e…5502backed Yes	0c	11,995$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.99	38	2.6%1 W · 37 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	0cpaid	+2,531.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	7c	11,134$807 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$807.19	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1d4…38d6backed Yes	1c	11,073$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.84	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a16…e158backed Yes	0c	10,443$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	1cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	9c	9,919$903 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$902.79	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	5,781$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.01	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	3c	4,909$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.14	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	6c	4,000$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	6c	3,892$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.74	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	3,688$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.75	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes	2c	2,571$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.63	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	1cpaid	+471%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	8c	2,301$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.1	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedd2…a09cbacked Yes	4c	2,195$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.49	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.6wins	+0.08per pick	5cpaid	+700.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,068$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.04	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	3c	1,789$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.97	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	3c	1,700$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.86	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	1,415$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.26	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	3c	1,363$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.76	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes	1c	1,250$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	342	15.8%54 W · 288 L	+20.9wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+32%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	2c	1,240$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.58	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes	2c	1,230$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.11	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes	1c	1,199$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.32	301	10.3%31 W · 270 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	1,183$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.56	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	2c	1,047$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e6a…7155backed Yes	5c	1,003$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.9	100	13%13 W · 87 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	2c	1,000$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.66	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18d7…64ccbacked Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	53	17%9 W · 44 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8513…75abbacked Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-1.0wins	-0.08per pick	16cpaid	-89.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes	8c	1,000$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	23	13%3 W · 20 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e53…58e1backed Yes	2c	932.39$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.12	110	9.1%10 W · 100 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	7c	899.98$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.5	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	3c	894.15$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.94	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9438…5ab8backed Yes	1c	813.23$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.98	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce68…f6b8backed Yes	2c	604.6$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.98	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x666a…4bf0backed Yes	6c	600$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	181	7.7%14 W · 167 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	8c	599.94$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.99	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	2c	550$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.25	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf084…4b0ebacked Yes	2c	500$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+51.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd560…1200backed Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+71.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5bc…96c0backed Yes	2c	500$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	104	4.8%5 W · 99 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+55.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b57…5975backed Yes	10c	372$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.2	35	14.3%5 W · 30 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf657…d8cebacked Yes	9c	332.84$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.96	36	36.1%13 W · 23 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-17%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes	7c	266.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	164	17.1%28 W · 136 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0412…d000backed Yes	6c	266.67$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9484…a173backed Yes	11c	250$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.5	400	16.8%67 W · 333 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	10c	218.33$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.03	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36b1…7f73backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b2e…41eabacked Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	136	14.7%20 W · 116 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cd5…5c0ebacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a41…a84abacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.3wins	+0.16per pick	9cpaid	+94.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	427	19.2%82 W · 345 L	+23.3wins	+0.05per pick	14cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4261…9fc5backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	71	16.9%12 W · 59 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+36.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc985…26cfbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6938…248abacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event