Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x192aa2a7430e8c5b61a36446d87e68dc361f3032d068d276d57a05eff68d90dc

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $372,111

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $372,111 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 176 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	32,995$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.99	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	2c	15,532$377 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$376.99	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	15c	12,816$1,894 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,893.68	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	10,446$437 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$437.39	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	9,307$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.17	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	8c	8,954$709 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$709.38	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c06…fbadbacked Yes	0c	8,771$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	8,005$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.01	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	5c	7,302$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342.08	123	8.9%11 W · 112 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+54%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3636…34c4backed Yes	0c	7,174$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.43	43	7%3 W · 40 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	7,157$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.94	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	6,944$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.35	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58a2…200bbacked Yes	0c	6,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	0c	5,700$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes	17c	5,637$940 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$939.97	179	19%34 W · 145 L	-10.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf2dd…1db4backed Yes	17c	5,514$921 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$920.62	160	9.4%15 W · 145 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	0c	4,804$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.61	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	0c	4,561$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.05	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	4,430$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.22	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	8c	4,000$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	5c	3,967$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.66	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Yes	0c	3,869$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.33	98	1%1 W · 97 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes	11c	3,355$376 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$375.92	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86f7…4edbbacked Yes	3c	3,009$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	25	12%3 W · 22 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+83.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	7c	2,894$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.99	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2959…bdf1backed Yes	15c	2,669$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-3.1wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0994…d307backed Yes	17c	2,519$416 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$416.17	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	16c	2,451$404 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$403.69	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes	17c	2,363$409 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$408.91	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	-4.2wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	2,275$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2d3…a1a2backed Yes	2c	2,220$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.96	37	0%0 W · 37 L	-2.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	8c	2,190$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.97	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3433…aa9ebacked Yes	19c	2,157$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes	1c	2,100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	427	19.2%82 W · 345 L	+23.3wins	+0.05per pick	14cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b1d…b3b0backed Yes	14c	2,092$293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$292.85	86	22.1%19 W · 67 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda6f…e619backed Yes	3c	2,061$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.37	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	1c	2,045$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.04	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c2e…e72ebacked Yes	8c	1,967$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.39	44	20.5%9 W · 35 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c04…6587backed Yes	1c	1,965$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	470	32.6%153 W · 317 L	+13.5wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6884…517cbacked Yes	3c	1,830$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	16c	1,563$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	6c	1,557$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.61	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	4c	1,500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.44	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	1,495$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.71	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf22f…7714backed Yes	14c	1,469$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	50	12%6 W · 44 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+79.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes	4c	1,397$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	138	17.4%24 W · 114 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	7c	1,298$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.51	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9837…16aabacked Yes	16c	1,250$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	5c	1,151$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.76	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	6c	1,047$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.66	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1169…d622backed Yes	1c	1,028$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	87	5.7%5 W · 82 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x330b…42debacked Yes	19c	1,027$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	38	26.3%10 W · 28 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	15c	1,016$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe77…1449backed Yes	2c	1,002$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e53…58e1backed Yes	2c	999.98$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	110	9.1%10 W · 100 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x26f8…fea1backed Yes	15c	999.98$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbce8…b49bbacked Yes	3c	989.98$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.68	71	15.5%11 W · 60 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e6a…7155backed Yes	16c	960.78$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	100	13%13 W · 87 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	6c	950$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.95	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe366…2e29backed Yes	17c	933.78$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.74	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a1f…d43cbacked Yes	2c	908.83$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	57	10.5%6 W · 51 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18d7…64ccbacked Yes	13c	899.99$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121	53	17%9 W · 44 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x14cf…d019backed Yes	5c	810.22$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	78	11.5%9 W · 69 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes	8c	799.99$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.3	342	15.8%54 W · 288 L	+20.9wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+32%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	13c	747.66$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.91	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes	7c	700$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.8	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x460c…d25fbacked Yes	19c	675.39$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127	43	25.6%11 W · 32 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8513…75abbacked Yes	15c	666.67$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-1.0wins	-0.08per pick	16cpaid	-89.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd84b…0df3backed Yes	12c	629$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.88	117	25.6%30 W · 87 L	-7.3wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7841…7273backed Yes	16c	607$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.12	77	14.3%11 W · 66 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	12c	600$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x252f…bfc1backed Yes	13c	600$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	66	30.3%20 W · 46 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x666a…4bf0backed Yes	8c	600$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	181	7.7%14 W · 167 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85f0…62ebbacked Yes	9c	599.95$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	101	14.9%15 W · 86 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+47.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb30a…250ebacked Yes	9c	560$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	58	15.5%9 W · 49 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+98.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x624e…a482backed Yes	18c	555.56$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	49	28.6%14 W · 35 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	226	10.6%24 W · 202 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x860b…b4a1backed Yes	20c	500$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	27cpaid	-6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	10c	500$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.4	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5bc…96c0backed Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	104	4.8%5 W · 99 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+55.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0568…f532backed Yes	15c	500$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-2.0wins	-0.08per pick	15cpaid	-41.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4806…d870backed Yes	3c	495.53$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.52	29	24.1%7 W · 22 L	+1.7wins	+0.06per pick	18cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	3c	494$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9457…76d8backed Yes	13c	490.94$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.64	43	18.6%8 W · 35 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes	6c	410.19$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.56	320	15%48 W · 272 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x24c6…5587backed Yes	16c	400$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	45	22.2%10 W · 35 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes	14c	400$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.8	488	19.3%94 W · 394 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	6c	377.03$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.73	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b57…5975backed Yes	15c	371$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.65	35	14.3%5 W · 30 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c34…8f4abacked Yes	18c	366.67$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-48%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x540a…41aebacked Yes	18c	351.17$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.21	53	18.9%10 W · 43 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x055a…7bbcbacked Yes	16c	349.1$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.36	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5deb…d24cbacked Yes	15c	340$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	56	33.9%19 W · 37 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9438…5ab8backed Yes	9c	333.33$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x661b…2216backed Yes	15c	327.45$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	8c	320.7$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd983…ac11backed Yes	11c	320.09$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.21	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	+81.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c54…1d08backed Yes	18c	300$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc83b…6c3bbacked Yes	20c	300$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	48	25%12 W · 36 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event