Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4af1e46936a9f721b5f3729e332062ab9c8aa2b3f739574539d31c32a847c85b

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 5, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $875,159

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $875,159 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 476 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	20c	39,135$7,923 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,922.89	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	11c	30,694$3,438 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,437.58	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	15c	29,397$4,289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,289.07	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xedd2…a09cbacked Yes	2c	25,403$596 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$595.85	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.6wins	+0.08per pick	5cpaid	+700.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fee…e688backed Yes	23c	22,131$5,139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,139.4	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	34cpaid	-70.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	16c	17,924$2,807 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,806.66	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xff4e…5502backed Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	38	2.6%1 W · 37 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	0cpaid	+2,531.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c96…1959backed Yes	22c	14,660$3,198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,197.88	52	28.8%15 W · 37 L	+3.1wins	+0.06per pick	23cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	19c	13,830$2,603 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,603.27	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	12c	10,548$1,256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,256.35	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x017b…1ef4backed Yes	1c	10,000$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	78	20.5%16 W · 62 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4d9…0940backed Yes	30c	9,115$2,690 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,690.22	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+0.9wins	+0.09per pick	28cpaid	+65.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes	6c	8,943$568 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$567.94	158	19%30 W · 128 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	9c	8,695$751 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$751.28	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	19c	7,421$1,443 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,443	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c1…1215backed Yes	23c	6,532$1,514 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,514.13	46	21.7%10 W · 36 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	9c	6,259$553 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$552.99	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	17c	5,290$916 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$916.48	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c09…eea9backed Yes	18c	5,165$918 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$917.9	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+32.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	9c	4,987$461 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$460.95	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes	11c	4,876$553 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$553.3	138	17.4%24 W · 114 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes	5c	4,783$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.43	248	15.3%38 W · 210 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	12c	4,604$534 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$533.86	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	4,569$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.06	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed No	74c	4,080$3,010 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,070.4	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	15c	4,023$623 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$623.49	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	10c	3,871$401 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$401.28	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	7c	3,701$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.02	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e6a…7155backed Yes	9c	3,597$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310	100	13%13 W · 87 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b14…2a35backed Yes	26c	3,585$932 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$931.63	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed No	70c	3,573$2,503 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,069.77	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x478e…a576backed Yes	20c	3,240$662 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$662.01	96	16.7%16 W · 80 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd84b…0df3backed Yes	20c	3,201$631 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$631.32	117	25.6%30 W · 87 L	-7.3wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes	2c	3,191$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.8	361	13.3%48 W · 313 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	3,151$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.41	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Yes	13c	3,000$387 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$386.58	67	47.8%32 W · 35 L	+4.9wins	+0.07per pick	40cpaid	+49.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	3,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8aa…a2ccbacked Yes	21c	2,940$631 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$631.11	75	36%27 W · 48 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	+11%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes	20c	2,853$557 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$557.49	149	28.2%42 W · 107 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes	20c	2,838$577 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$576.6	216	14.8%32 W · 184 L	-8.1wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	3c	2,836$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	72c	2,746$1,984 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$762.03	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	6c	2,545$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.62	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50a6…1c2ebacked Yes	24c	2,542$620 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$620.48	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-1.7wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	-79%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	5c	2,475$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.11	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	6c	2,267$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.7	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d1a…86febacked Yes	3c	2,256$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.31	47	6.4%3 W · 44 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01a4…4967backed No	78c	2,229$1,732 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$496.32	160	56.9%91 W · 69 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f9f…19b7backed Yes	4c	2,228$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+2.0wins	+0.09per pick	18cpaid	-12%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb614…2a44backed Yes	29c	2,062$597 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$597.39	113	39.8%45 W · 68 L	+3.9wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	72c	2,053$1,473 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$579.72	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x330b…42debacked Yes	25c	2,012$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	38	26.3%10 W · 28 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	6c	2,012$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.87	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes	13c	2,009$268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267.81	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes	23c	2,000$460 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$460.15	292	27.7%81 W · 211 L	+7.3wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-12%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	14c	2,000$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.39	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ec6…20d4backed Yes	25c	1,953$497 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$496.87	83	25.3%21 W · 62 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	18c	1,949$359 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$359.15	518	45.9%238 W · 280 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9447…91f2backed Yes	1c	1,924$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	27	0%0 W · 27 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes	14c	1,912$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.18	37	8.1%3 W · 34 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes	8c	1,863$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.61	264	11.4%30 W · 234 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6eb6…19bebacked Yes	14c	1,818$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249	97	14.4%14 W · 83 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e83…30dabacked Yes	22c	1,817$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400.2	94	23.4%22 W · 72 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc1c…a37fbacked No	79c	1,815$1,426 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$389.7	119	31.1%37 W · 82 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	1,814$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.86	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x172b…e2cdbacked Yes	33c	1,743$580 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$580	82	36.6%30 W · 52 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cca…f402backed Yes	12c	1,700$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	5c	1,666$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.36	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	12c	1,637$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.48	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0037…be55backed Yes	13c	1,630$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.27	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x221f…fca7backed Yes	9c	1,542$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145	82	13.4%11 W · 71 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc73…d73abacked Yes	29c	1,541$453 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$452.8	51	29.4%15 W · 36 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	3c	1,527$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.77	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xc9df…76c1backed Yes	11c	1,514$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.77	40	10%4 W · 36 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-66.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes	8c	1,500$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.96	188	22.3%42 W · 146 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1c1…4628backed Yes	13c	1,488$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92ad…c78fbacked Yes	6c	1,461$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.94	79	7.6%6 W · 73 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16a8…7d0cbacked Yes	10c	1,402$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes	22c	1,391$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	179	19%34 W · 145 L	-10.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4219…6e2cbacked Yes	3c	1,380$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.73	63	25.4%16 W · 47 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ec4…bfe9backed Yes	2c	1,369$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.08	165	6.7%11 W · 154 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1137…978dbacked Yes	9c	1,351$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.79	100	32%32 W · 68 L	-7.0wins	-0.07per pick	39cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes	9c	1,335$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.81	105	10.5%11 W · 94 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x201a…3418backed Yes	21c	1,330$281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.45	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+40.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc0b6…90a8backed Yes	5c	1,293$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	53	13.2%7 W · 46 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	2c	1,282$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.51	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2dd…1db4backed Yes	19c	1,274$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.31	160	9.4%15 W · 145 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x028b…06bcbacked Yes	20c	1,262$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbce8…b49bbacked Yes	21c	1,250$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257.75	71	15.5%11 W · 60 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba66…79d8backed Yes	14c	1,247$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.9	115	19.1%22 W · 93 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	+29.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1385…1cf9backed Yes	30c	1,234$375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$375	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5859…38cbbacked Yes	8c	1,222$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e9a…5f9cbacked Yes	29c	1,220$353 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$353.24	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-65.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x864d…64afbacked Yes	5c	1,209$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.16	122	19.7%24 W · 98 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	7c	1,207$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.35	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18d7…64ccbacked Yes	31c	1,200$373 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$372.94	53	17%9 W · 44 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0eae…e469backed Yes	14c	1,196$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.18	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes	10c	1,125$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.83	320	15%48 W · 272 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	6c	1,120$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.96	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8d4…0e8bbacked Yes	8c	1,116$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.88	54	13%7 W · 47 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+93.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event