Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x265162b0230303af84d50e0b63f30128ddec0454214b2b71cbdab550be7c7a42

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $652,325

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $652,325 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 257 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	45,584$1,320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,319.53	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	34,027$1,418 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,418.16	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	2c	27,716$616 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$616.47	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes	1c	23,246$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319.63	44	4.5%2 W · 42 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-50.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	2c	20,915$475 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$475.46	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	2c	20,474$443 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$442.76	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7be4…c73cbacked Yes	1c	19,232$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.24	25	8%2 W · 23 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+14%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	3c	18,657$555 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$555	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	5c	13,902$714 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$714.07	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	7c	12,631$885 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$884.6	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	9,625$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.41	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	5c	9,255$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes	1c	8,130$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.44	92	19.6%18 W · 74 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa25a…3e8ebacked Yes	1c	8,047$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.47	63	12.7%8 W · 55 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x02b4…7092backed Yes	4c	8,000$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$282.48	83	8.4%7 W · 76 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-69.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	7,806$313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$313.11	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	7c	7,792$582 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$581.95	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed Yes	1c	7,739$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.85	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	3c	7,365$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	3c	6,890$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.76	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes	5c	6,698$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$304.9	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	6,081$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.41	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	2c	6,018$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.84	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c06…fbadbacked Yes	4c	5,489$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x45df…5b27backed Yes	1c	5,302$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.09	93	2.2%2 W · 91 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14cf…d019backed Yes	7c	5,227$347 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$347	78	11.5%9 W · 69 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	2c	5,105$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	4c	5,031$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.37	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	1c	5,029$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.12	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes	1c	5,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	212	20.3%43 W · 169 L	+13.4wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	+610.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	5c	4,930$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.3	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde1b…ccc9backed Yes	1c	4,614$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.53	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc9df…76c1backed Yes	2c	4,546$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.42	40	10%4 W · 36 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-66.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes	4c	4,502$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.1	248	15.3%38 W · 210 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	4,425$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.06	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes	3c	4,300$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.11	316	21.8%69 W · 247 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	4,300$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.56	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	10c	4,108$393 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$393.47	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x623f…53bcbacked Yes	0c	4,100$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.4	188	8%15 W · 173 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+86%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	3c	4,076$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.28	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	4,070$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.48	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes	4c	3,933$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.68	118	9.3%11 W · 107 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	4c	3,720$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.16	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2959…bdf1backed Yes	10c	3,396$349 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$348.62	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-3.1wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	3,386$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	3,375$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.8	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	5c	3,312$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.21	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes	12c	3,288$390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390	179	19%34 W · 145 L	-10.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	5c	3,213$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.38	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	8c	3,192$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.68	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	1c	3,157$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.07	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	3c	3,097$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.01	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes	1c	3,081$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.86	427	19.2%82 W · 345 L	+23.3wins	+0.05per pick	14cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	7c	3,000$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.83	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	6c	2,924$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.8	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes	1c	2,906$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.39	256	17.2%44 W · 212 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x149b…d435backed Yes	1c	2,803$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.18per pick	15cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b14…2a35backed Yes	12c	2,750$323 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$323.05	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67c4…4622backed Yes	4c	2,745$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x029d…8d3dbacked Yes	3c	2,744$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.67	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	1c	2,742$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.71	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9edf…0f44backed Yes	3c	2,568$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.17	65	9.2%6 W · 59 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee4…9d92backed Yes	1c	2,511$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.06	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	6c	2,501$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.79	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	4c	2,465$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.51	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5dd…e40cbacked Yes	4c	2,400$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.6	58	17.2%10 W · 48 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes	1c	2,400$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	146	25.3%37 W · 109 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	1c	2,386$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	2c	2,277$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.92	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes	6c	2,262$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.53	216	14.8%32 W · 184 L	-8.1wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	4c	2,253$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.42	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe76b…e02abacked Yes	2c	2,219$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.99	108	6.5%7 W · 101 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-11%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3ff…9708backed Yes	1c	2,173$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.82	62	24.2%15 W · 47 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes	10c	2,172$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.76	207	35.3%73 W · 134 L	+5.2wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9906…c0aebacked Yes	1c	2,128$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.38	75	25.3%19 W · 56 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	+35.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	4c	2,103$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e4c…60a7backed Yes	2c	2,093$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.99	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2559…460bbacked Yes	3c	2,072$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.94	264	18.6%49 W · 215 L	+8.7wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	1c	2,000$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.9	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Yes	3c	2,000$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	161	10.6%17 W · 144 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	10c	2,000$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.78	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	4c	2,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c3d…8d58backed Yes	13c	2,000$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	36	8.3%3 W · 33 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes	3c	2,000$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.8	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c31…5f1bbacked Yes	5c	1,966$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	67	25.4%17 W · 50 L	+4.0wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa62c…a3c1backed Yes	4c	1,942$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.82	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	+23.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbce8…b49bbacked Yes	12c	1,900$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.4	71	15.5%11 W · 60 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0dd…f987backed Yes	1c	1,864$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.4	89	15.7%14 W · 75 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x27e4…ff39backed Yes	5c	1,829$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	4c	1,640$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.86	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x201a…3418backed Yes	4c	1,585$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.39	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+40.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes	5c	1,525$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.42	164	17.1%28 W · 136 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	4c	1,525$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.56	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d1a…86febacked Yes	6c	1,519$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.2	47	6.4%3 W · 44 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes	4c	1,507$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.07	37	8.1%3 W · 34 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x89e1…5323backed Yes	14c	1,503$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.08	48	20.8%10 W · 38 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	3c	1,500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.41	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	3c	1,500$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	1c	1,500$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes	9c	1,500$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.05	188	22.3%42 W · 146 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event