TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9e4c…60a7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
49
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Olympics, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Olympics at 54 out of 100; worst Commodities at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT2321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+100%+$10
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.77
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.3
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.17
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$37.14
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.48
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.1
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+294.4%+$235.9
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$175
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+154%+$24.61
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$107.94
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$49.99
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$35
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+286.6%+$66.76
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$27
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$12.8
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$10.29
All 23 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick24cpaid-27.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Olympics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Denmark record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+67.4%+$7.41
Men's Final - Canada vs. USAbacked Canada · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Men's Knockout - Slovakia vs. Finlandbacked Slovakia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$17
Will Marijke Groenewoud (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's Mass Start at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+93.1%+$19.54
Will Oceane Michelon (FRA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Women's 12.5km Mass Start at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+122.8%+$16.12
Men's Semifinals - USA vs. Slovakiabacked Slovakia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finlandbacked Finland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Men's Quarterfinals - Canada vs. Czechiabacked Czechia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$25
All 8 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT70%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alex Vanopslagh be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$182.3
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$147.95
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$109.23
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.79
Will Liberal Alliance win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Will Venstre win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will Social Democrats win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
All 7 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-45.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.