Olympics · resolved market
Will Marijke Groenewoud (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's Mass Start at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8bead0fa6e2f317d89f5642f374184fb98d441108e93f9162825acfb60f072d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,973
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,606
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,973 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x359f…fa80backed No | 2c | 1,400$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 42 | 7.1%3 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d58…1aeabacked No | 60c | 991.42$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.81 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes | 41c | 616$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.95 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…8206backed Yes | 47c | 428.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +103%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 61c | 242.05$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.36 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 40c | 158$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.8 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 52c | 144.43$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.57 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 47c | 113.21$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.21 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0b…2e35backed Yes | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 31c | 109$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa900…3805backed No | 60c | 101.4$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31fa…20c5backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…76d5backed No | 44c | 57.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4c…60a7backed Yes | 52c | 40.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0228…aa02backed Yes | 32c | 39.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bc…a87fbacked No | 56c | 38.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked No | 60c | 38.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac48…04c8backed Yes | 52c | 35.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 47c | 34.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 38c | 31.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…83f0backed Yes | 46c | 29.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe851…0ed4backed No | 68c | 29.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4644…a2b6backed No | 61c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 43c | 24.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Marijke Groenewoud (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's Mass Start at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?this page
- Will Ayano Sato (JPN) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's Mass Start at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Bente Kerkhoff (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's Mass Start at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Francesca Lollobrigida (ITA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's Mass Start at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Ivanie Blondin (CAN) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's Mass Start at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Ji-Woo Park (KOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's Mass Start at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Mia Manganello (USA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's Mass Start at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Valerie Maltais (CAN) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's Mass Start at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.