TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$57,153
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$58,520

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,153 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No15c2,513$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.7962539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes12c2,277$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,002.152,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed Yes43c1,105$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.07450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes15c1,029$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$878.0518618.3%34 W · 152 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked Yes13c1,015$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880.1712232.8%40 W · 82 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes35c940.94$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.3615819%30 W · 128 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x860d…6071backed Yes22c882.49$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$685.1724732.4%80 W · 167 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes39c799.99$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.7311421.9%25 W · 89 L-0.4wins0.00per pick22cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89e1…5323backed Yes15c678.46$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.924820.8%10 W · 38 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1137…978dbacked Yes40c595.81$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35910032%32 W · 68 L-7.0wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x087e…51c5backed Yes74c586.09$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.16666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+41.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes55c528.75$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.8615430.5%47 W · 107 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c477.64$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.22,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes9c475.76$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.6624710.9%27 W · 220 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+44.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No64c466.36$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.431565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes34c428.74$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.563724.3%9 W · 28 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-24.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes79c420.74$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.5250828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes50c378$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.4476821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ff1…121abacked Yes71c352.57$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.57366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc614…b14bbacked Yes15c350.45$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.8834714.7%51 W · 296 L+13.8wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-19.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes27c326.43$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.6352619.8%104 W · 422 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-24.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes18c307.04$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.458915.7%14 W · 75 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick10cpaid-24.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes7c296.52$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.391,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed No18c291.94$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.691189.3%11 W · 107 L-0.5wins0.00per pick10cpaid-45.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x624e…a482backed Yes44c278.94$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.644928.6%14 W · 35 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-32.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes34c265.76$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.5519550.3%98 W · 97 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x35b8…898abacked Yes38c249.99$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.241030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-43.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes19c228.32$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.9679735.9%286 W · 511 L-34.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7849…da97backed Yes71c220.61$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.5634127.3%93 W · 248 L+1.7wins0.00per pick27cpaid-7.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes55c215.57$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.3299619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes50c215$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.367533.3%25 W · 50 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes9c200$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.51,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed No16c200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325040%20 W · 30 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+66.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes15c195.38$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.381968.4%13 W · 6 L+4.2wins+0.22per pick47cpaid+76.8%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x9484…a173backed Yes12c194.9$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.8940016.8%67 W · 333 L-0.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes42c175.75$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.4643933%145 W · 294 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-38.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x48af…89ccbacked Yes23c172.81$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.811827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick20cpaid-25.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes17c163.28$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.71419.8%4 W · 37 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-32%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8188…0667backed Yes17c159.65$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.68119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick2cpaid-46.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No41c157.04$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1750319.5%98 W · 405 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-46.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae9f…4967backed Yes37c155$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.91060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes13c148.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.0428016.4%46 W · 234 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1726…1ad4backed Yes11c142.81$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.812236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid+7.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x210d…e7dcbacked No15c141.48$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.22250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac9…d570backed Yes22c138.13$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.131040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed Yes13c127.4$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.372532%8 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid+34.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00b2…6cb7backed Yes80c126.98$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.011258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24eb…0c6fbacked Yes70c120.96$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a91…7ebabacked Yes21c117.65$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.657326%19 W · 54 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked No13c113.94$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.355538.2%21 W · 34 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid+0.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f81…0e93backed Yes19c104.8$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.82532%8 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+37.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ec5…f126backed Yes17c103.87$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.85333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+92.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb1…22f0backed No23c101.38$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7230%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a82…c2c1backed Yes12c100$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883729.7%11 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c38…a3a5backed Yes11c100$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.0418224.2%44 W · 138 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-29.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed No17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.610727.1%29 W · 78 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-49.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6bb…2d3abacked No59c100$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594637%17 W · 29 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ea8…c8bdbacked No26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-78.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed Yes16c99.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.2410325.2%26 W · 77 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafbc…18c6backed Yes58c97.48$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.76616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-71.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x056c…5066backed Yes17c96.87$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.351952.6%10 W · 9 L+3.1wins+0.17per pick36cpaid+85.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x15c5…78c4backed Yes44c91.7$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.7250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed No17c91.16$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4930714%43 W · 264 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc561…842ebacked No62c90.53$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.04250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe62e…cc81backed Yes33c90.36$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.3616741.3%69 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e4c…60a7backed Yes26c90.05$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.762321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce1f…7392backed Yes78c90$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.81612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-81.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes38c89.02$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.2529225%73 W · 219 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9676…4374backed Yes70c84.01$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.81250%6 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes22c78.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.7236018.6%67 W · 293 L+0.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5da4…1432backed Yes37c74.32$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+172.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4664…8be1backed Yes20c74.13$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.13650%3 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+111%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes75c70.05$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6959225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No29c64.49$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.672420.8%5 W · 19 L-7.3wins-0.30per pick51cpaid-66.3%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x8328…935fbacked Yes40c62.5$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.691154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+31.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7ce…37babacked Yes39c55.55$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+154.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No42c52.17$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9324932.9%82 W · 167 L-33.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-46.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xb3a3…a4d7backed No21c50.23$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.44922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb25…3c61backed Yes54c50.03$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.16366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No65c45.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.873158.1%18 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dcb…d805backed Yes36c45.07$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.921020%2 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-50.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb37…6883backed Yes55c40.26$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.055735.1%20 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No66c39.7$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3523541.3%97 W · 138 L-29.2wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-35.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x39b6…513fbacked Yes39c35.52$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+153.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked No68c32.36$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.065066%33 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x120d…5a76backed No61c29.27$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick60cpaid+55.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe213…efbbbacked Yes79c29$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.21425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-68.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Yes71c28.65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.182948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked No57c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.441220.6%85 W · 327 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1272…778cbacked Yes76c17$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.061643.8%7 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.