Tweets · resolved market
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bed43de9ddc871e916639791d78f11b8dc371c25cc77480dad796f646228db8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,536
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,536 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 5c | 4,398$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.82 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked Yes | 7c | 2,888$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.16 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 3c | 2,050$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.13 | 553 | 5.6%31 W · 522 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 1c | 1,860$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 256 | 17.2%44 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 3c | 1,780$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.98 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,755$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04c9…573cbacked Yes | 22c | 1,692$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.37 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 4c | 1,571$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.68 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55bf…9ee3backed Yes | 11c | 951.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 85 | 27.1%23 W · 62 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…c705backed Yes | 1c | 889.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 835.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 7c | 799.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 1c | 757.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9edf…0f44backed Yes | 3c | 671.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 9.2%6 W · 59 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…6071backed Yes | 17c | 643.9$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.1 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 4c | 561$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…2100backed No | 72c | 551.15$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.74 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 521$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 3c | 512.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 4c | 482.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 4c | 451.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 447.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…09f6backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 4c | 378$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…b343backed Yes | 29c | 349.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 287.06$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.04 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…57b2backed Yes | 4c | 278.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 84 | 9.5%8 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +105%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa6…4094backed Yes | 11c | 225.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 307 | 14%43 W · 264 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Yes | 11c | 192.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 77 | 14.3%11 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b6…90d3backed Yes | 7c | 167.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 121.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83e9…cfb0backed Yes | 11c | 107$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…1ad4backed Yes | 11c | 106.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…c094backed Yes | 16c | 105.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff98…b943backed No | 70c | 71.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…67b8backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…d512backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 76c | 13.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.