Tweets · resolved market
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21bcb792e9ad9b10c4c87b2a9e02c787a03d1a72a0fa953e445a7ff8433504a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $129,041
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,041 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0c4…978fbacked Yes | 0c | 59,999$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.77 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 30cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,416$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Yes | 6c | 2,771$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.25 | 107 | 27.1%29 W · 78 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 2,697$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.66 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes | 12c | 1,899$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.08 | 158 | 19%30 W · 128 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 2c | 1,703$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 9c | 1,590$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.76 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 19c | 1,217$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.12 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 13c | 1,143$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.34 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 16cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8d…fc01backed Yes | 25c | 1,002$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…9756backed No | 75c | 964$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 867.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 3c | 825.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 89 | 15.7%14 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f81…0e93backed Yes | 3c | 725.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0dd…19eabacked Yes | 26c | 695.78$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.47 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…8e18backed Yes | 5c | 682.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04c9…573cbacked Yes | 16c | 636.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x624e…a482backed Yes | 19c | 621.15$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.33 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 3c | 505.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeed0…8817backed Yes | 23c | 439.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e8…a236backed Yes | 22c | 399.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…6071backed Yes | 9c | 393.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb928…fa64backed Yes | 21c | 371.58$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked Yes | 23c | 354.4$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 19c | 350$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 400 | 16.8%67 W · 333 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 79c | 339.5$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.71 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 17c | 336.62$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 27c | 309.61$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.31 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe98b…d34bbacked Yes | 4c | 304$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 491 | 6.7%33 W · 458 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b03…b766backed Yes | 24c | 273$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 106 | 23.6%25 W · 81 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 5c | 272.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 526 | 19.8%104 W · 422 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 5c | 262.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e6…56b6backed Yes | 22c | 232.72$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…c094backed No | 79c | 212.38$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x439f…bdedbacked Yes | 29c | 199.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 317 | 43.2%137 W · 180 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…1ad4backed Yes | 10c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 23c | 132.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f83…0e8dbacked Yes | 8c | 128.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked No | 79c | 113.57$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 77c | 113.19$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…a3a5backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 182 | 24.2%44 W · 138 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd182…941ebacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c3…b5e5backed No | 79c | 98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2e…c77bbacked Yes | 19c | 95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 19c | 93.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 25c | 86.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…ace5backed Yes | 24c | 82.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 17c | 78.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 83 | 12%10 W · 73 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed Yes | 21c | 73.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 73c | 50.91$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 340 | 39.7%135 W · 205 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…9836backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…3ecebacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x604e…f1cdbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 272 | 24.3%66 W · 206 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2c…8258backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e50…98f0backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 330 | 27.9%92 W · 238 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4744…e229backed No | 75c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 79c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 78c | 28.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 227 | 70.9%161 W · 66 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe0…192abacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.