TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$67,325
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$58,579

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,325 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c9,219$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.552,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes16c4,843$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.1463414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes26c2,597$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.562,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes32c2,454$797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$796.5418618.3%34 W · 152 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b42…229ebacked Yes1c2,064$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8710322.3%23 W · 80 L+8.6wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+59.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes21c1,993$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.9915819%30 W · 128 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes17c1,292$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.53724.3%9 W · 28 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-24.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No31c1,234$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$849.9562539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d7a…525fbacked No70c1,024$712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.69875%6 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes15c769.63$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.31,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes35c685.07$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.0411421.9%25 W · 89 L-0.4wins0.00per pick22cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x860d…6071backed Yes18c658.83$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.4424732.4%80 W · 167 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes26c638.25$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.3126411.4%30 W · 234 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes25c600.36$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.8537830.7%116 W · 262 L-17.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x89e1…5323backed Yes26c542.75$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.234820.8%10 W · 38 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes12c474.27$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.621238.9%11 W · 112 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+54%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes30c418.87$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.3599619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x478e…a576backed Yes21c414.7$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.099616.7%16 W · 80 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed No16c390.49$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.762128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10e3…5c79backed Yes23c385.12$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.9360%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes17c378.01$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6211418.4%21 W · 93 L+10.0wins+0.09per pick10cpaid-15.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes24c348$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3876821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes3c345.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7224710.9%27 W · 220 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+44.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dc6…0f6abacked Yes48c332.3$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1608918%16 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3925…c094backed Yes21c325.74$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.662119%4 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes33c312.9$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.6419550.3%98 W · 97 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe46f…7e60backed Yes7c307.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ed7…60cbbacked No64c299.99$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.021553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa14a…b343backed Yes36c279.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No57c275.51$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.8431565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes39c270.32$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10515430.5%47 W · 107 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes38c251.29$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.62524%6 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-62.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes18c249.69$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4530714%43 W · 264 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x624e…a482backed Yes32c248.17$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804928.6%14 W · 35 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-32.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No51c240.75$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.6824932.9%82 W · 167 L-33.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-46.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x5264…9a63backed Yes13c230.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes15c219.14$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.061717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-45.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac9…d570backed Yes23c218.35$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x254c…7678backed No74c213.4$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.511877.8%14 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06e1…d431backed Yes20c200$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0269…4cc9backed Yes28c200$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.819527.7%54 W · 141 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6503…09f6backed Yes15c199.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308923.6%21 W · 68 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes32c178.68$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8452619.8%104 W · 422 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-24.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x87ab…e99cbacked No62c178.27$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.273151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabb1…22f0backed Yes59c168.63$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x312a…66b8backed Yes24c168.27$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6527920.4%57 W · 222 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1137…978dbacked Yes64c166.94$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.910032%32 W · 68 L-7.0wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7841…7273backed Yes28c161.29$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.267714.3%11 W · 66 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2726…b4e2backed Yes75c143.71$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b03…b766backed Yes14c142.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010623.6%25 W · 81 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-36.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No68c141.07$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.779735.9%286 W · 511 L-34.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe213…efbbbacked Yes36c140.54$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.02425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-68.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe362…602bbacked No77c139.99$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.74966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+79.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9315…16c9backed Yes18c123$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.74825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-55%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea8…c8bdbacked Yes20c122.61$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.28616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-78.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb35…714abacked No65c115$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+52.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2626…92e0backed Yes54c112$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9777…3761backed No80c107.64$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.531050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-11.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4048…4264backed No38c107.08$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eae…e469backed Yes31c106.67$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2a4…d224backed No70c105.52$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.08250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f94…0b53backed No78c101.58$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.351136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e4…9d23backed Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3670%0 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfaa6…0cacbacked Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c38…a3a5backed Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.118224.2%44 W · 138 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-29.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9251018.2%93 W · 417 L-89.7wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-49.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xf775…f817backed Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185414.8%8 W · 46 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9786…b15cbacked Yes41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.94027.5%11 W · 29 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-0.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb052…7adabacked No66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No78c99.87$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9151845.9%238 W · 280 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xafbc…18c6backed Yes12c97.48$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.85616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-71.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4c8…0ed9backed No77c96.69$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.241060%6 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+24.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3cb…ef82backed No78c96.28$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.378916.9%15 W · 74 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+85.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes11c95.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes23c91.16$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3740%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x438c…481abacked Yes58c90$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.11825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-27.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00b3…0991backed Yes33c89.59$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.943119.4%6 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-2.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes42c89.03$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2829225%73 W · 219 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x303c…acffbacked Yes33c87.95$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.11333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-43.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes63c85.89$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541968.4%13 W · 6 L+4.2wins+0.22per pick47cpaid+76.8%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xe2b9…7023backed Yes22c80$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8722227%60 W · 162 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1726…1ad4backed Yes33c76.61$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.382236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid+7.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes37c75$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.837533.3%25 W · 50 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d48…ba3cbacked No78c73.09$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.431050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a91…7ebabacked Yes21c71.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157326%19 W · 54 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x58cb…3cd6backed Yes29c69.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010024%24 W · 76 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e7f…66f4backed No62c68.01$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.98366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x110d…cd01backed Yes58c66.66$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.53812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-80.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes18c65$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.73221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked No17c64.71$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.7112232.8%40 W · 82 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed No25c64.7$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.5912216.4%20 W · 102 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick9cpaid+40.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x04d3…6707backed Yes31c64.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf668…e47abacked No80c63.36$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.67966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+13.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes24c63.05$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.138312%10 W · 73 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick9cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No57c61.92$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.7543933%145 W · 294 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-38.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe187…fbbdbacked Yes38c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed No77c59.99$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.143027%116 W · 314 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee76…8fcebacked Yes34c58.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204517.8%8 W · 37 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7dcb…d805backed Yes50c55.14$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.331020%2 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-50.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe039…d1a9backed Yes37c55.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.