TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$92,405
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$82,306

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,405 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe864…ce58backed Yes4c10,133$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.0110727.1%29 W · 78 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-49.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9cb…84a1backed Yes21c4,793$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000214.8%1 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick14cpaid-6.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes2c3,179$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604165.3%22 W · 394 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+158.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes22c2,866$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.462,54513.2%335 W · 2,210 L+4.9wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No76c2,360$1,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.8562539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes10c2,064$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.13724.3%9 W · 28 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-24.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x769d…05bfbacked Yes37c1,858$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.250%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dc6…0f6abacked Yes9c1,692$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1608918%16 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes5c1,684$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.542727%19 W · 253 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+83.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c1,498$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.912,1603.9%85 W · 2,075 L+5.9wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d7a…525fbacked No65c1,396$913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.35875%6 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes31c1,384$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.115819%30 W · 128 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71e2…147abacked Yes5c1,320$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.591729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+48.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes28c1,236$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.341,03611.1%115 W · 921 L+4.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x04c9…573cbacked Yes17c1,147$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick15cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3db2…be55backed Yes7c935.82$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.345822.4%13 W · 45 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes19c930.1$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18063414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes37c816.15$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.3318618.3%34 W · 152 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x201a…66a8backed Yes6c793.32$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020129.4%59 W · 142 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes7c738.82$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6711418.4%21 W · 93 L+10.0wins+0.09per pick10cpaid-15.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9af8…b069backed Yes5c727.52$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.763525.7%9 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc133…5232backed Yes16c720.95$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed No40c715.61$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.651546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes10c710.25$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.04419.8%4 W · 37 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-32%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes3c704.08$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.545525.6%31 W · 521 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+42.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x031e…53d3backed Yes34c699.99$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0c4…978fbacked No66c651.37$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.471553.3%8 W · 7 L+3.5wins+0.23per pick30cpaid+27.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes13c644.21$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.5511421.9%25 W · 89 L-0.4wins0.00per pick22cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No71c592.33$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.89058.9%53 W · 37 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x24eb…0c6fbacked Yes23c583$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2626…92e0backed Yes11c551.94$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd82f…aba0backed Yes3c539.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.352360.9%14 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+27.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes6c537.81$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.171,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac9…d570backed Yes33c523.43$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.051040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes22c504.85$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.697533.3%25 W · 50 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeed0…8817backed Yes21c483.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002425%6 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-41.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes4c477.44$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.261,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes23c464.55$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.452619.8%104 W · 422 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-24.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe82b…52b4backed Yes38c422.99$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes8c400$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.786915.5%38 W · 653 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x55bf…9ee3backed Yes20c384.69$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.78527.1%23 W · 62 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd423…d8b1backed Yes38c382.68$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.07742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-41.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x65c3…b5e5backed Yes17c358.12$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.92633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3925…c094backed No73c349.08$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.492119%4 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No71c335.13$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.617556%42 W · 33 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x860d…6071backed Yes23c325.84$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.4524732.4%80 W · 167 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes8c303.38$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.244916.7%33 W · 458 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0269…4cc9backed Yes15c300$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.919527.7%54 W · 141 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b03…b766backed Yes23c275$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6310623.6%25 W · 81 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-36.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x89e1…5323backed Yes37c267.97$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004820.8%10 W · 38 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes18c259.91$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7850%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x48af…89ccbacked No68c248.83$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.831827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick20cpaid-25.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7022…f64ebacked Yes34c243.68$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.172040%8 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd480…ddc8backed Yes41c241.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001010%1 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick30cpaid-83.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe98b…d34bbacked Yes6c229.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes21c219.85$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.711968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.1wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+36.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes6c213.77$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1241718%75 W · 342 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f83…0e8dbacked Yes24c210.09$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.061844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+33.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb376…3ecebacked Yes27c206.99$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.87250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9484…a173backed Yes11c200$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9540016.8%67 W · 333 L-0.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b59…eb78backed No55c199.99$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2822…f1aebacked Yes36c199.99$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.99425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-59.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdef…5312backed Yes14c178.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251118.2%2 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-68.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes17c176$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6576821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No78c170$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.2326167%175 W · 86 L+0.3wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes29c166.23$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.861717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-45.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No71c160.18$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.2631565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5899…1a23backed Yes9c160$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick15cpaid+25.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf826…ac84backed No63c158.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes24c155.08$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9226411.4%30 W · 234 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes22c150$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4239518.7%74 W · 321 L-57.0wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-60.5%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xb052…7adabacked Yes34c150$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.51631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce2e…c77bbacked Yes26c150$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391225%3 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c0d…e5c6backed Yes45c150$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6740%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24d5…b3f7backed No59c150$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick55cpaid-57.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe99d…fb60backed Yes36c149.99$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-67.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes27c142.11$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7943933%145 W · 294 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-38.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x58c0…e64fbacked Yes7c142$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.269126.4%24 W · 67 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+33.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x45df…e545backed Yes25c124.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x091f…672ebacked Yes10c122.38$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121225%3 W · 9 L-3.2wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-65%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9315…16c9backed Yes41c121.96$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-55%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes12c120$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.222074.3%9 W · 198 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0afd…b9c9backed Yes39c118.22$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.22462.5%15 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes35c113.6$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4015430.5%47 W · 107 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes32c110.37$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9734039.7%135 W · 205 L-12.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa07a…78eabacked Yes36c107.38$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-51%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes21c106.33$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8724932.9%82 W · 167 L-33.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-46.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x0186…40edbacked No66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349733%32 W · 65 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0a9…351fbacked Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+158.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea1c…4dafbacked Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1855…ec9bbacked Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3330%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a48…d8f8backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204214.3%6 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-51.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c38…a3a5backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1118224.2%44 W · 138 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-29.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fa0…aa66backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322020%4 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbcc1…50dbbacked Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae9f…4967backed Yes27c93.26$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.721060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4217…fccebacked No69c92.62$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.71475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e2b…74e3backed No68c88.57$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.57922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-67.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96b2…c0aebacked Yes40c85.72$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e7f…66f4backed No65c84.2$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.47366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.