TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0523…ace5

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
152
Categories scored
29
Categories below 50
21

Best Category: AI, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category AI at 56 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT3441.2%14 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-2.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 34 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kurds declare independence from Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$156.85
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+27.4%+$21.5
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+56.7%+$90.5
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$117
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$14
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.57
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+38.6%+$69.58
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.88
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+278.8%+$110.4
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$74
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.5
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$153.9
Will Israel strike 3 countries in March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$54
Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+30.7%+$18.44
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+41.7%+$26.65
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.4
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+45.5%+$46.88
US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$22.73
US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+233.3%+$35
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$75
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$64.5
US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+629.2%+$120.9
Showing 25 of 34 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 9, 2026, EDT1936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.4
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+105.5%+$15.42
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.6
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+37%+$16.2
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+50.4%+$13.4
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.53
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$16.8
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+159.9%+$62.5
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 24-25°F on March 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.5
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 48-49°F on March 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.49
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 22-23°F on March 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+48.1%+$32.5
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.5
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on March 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.5
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 46-47°F on March 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+46%+$31.5
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.25
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on March 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.5
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 19 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2026, EDT1225%3 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$36.5
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.75
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.54
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$30.67
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.3
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$12.44
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$19.81
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+614.3%+$85.99
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$55
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$180
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$607Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$607.41
All 12 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick40cpaid-51%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$6.4
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$29
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$36.2
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17
Will Trump and Zelenskyy’s handshake last 6–10 seconds?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$16.5
Will Trump and Zelenskyy’s handshake last 10–15 seconds?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$14
Will Trump and Zelenskyy’s handshake last 2–6 seconds?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$66.99
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+194.1%+$198
All 9 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved May 11, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-67.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Movies — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 38m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.79
Will "Sentimental Value" win exactly 2 awards at the Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+25%+$2.98
Will The Girl Who Cried Pearls win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.5
Will a contestant numbered 151 - 175 win Beast Games: Season 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Will "I Can Only Imagine 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 10m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$17.13
Will "Solo Mio" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8.5m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$62
Will "Melania" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 5m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$105.05
Will "Melania" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4.5m and 5m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$13.6
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 123m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$183Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+63.9%+$117
All 9 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+56.7%+$14.48
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+49.2%+$31.75
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.5
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.5
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+465%+$164.6
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.89
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$917Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$917
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,479Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$1,479.37
All 8 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.25per pick60cpaid+65.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
AI — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid+10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-61.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2026, EST60%0 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 5, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+24.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Colts vs. Texansbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$848Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+34.9%+$296.45
Jaguars vs. Coltsbacked Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,963Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+40.8%+$801.85
Giants vs. Cowboysbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2024, EDT-100%-$63.55
Rams vs. 49ersbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2024, EDT-100%-$135
Buccaneers vs. Broncosbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2024, EDT+244.8%+$249.72
All 5 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2025, EST520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-71.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+121.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rays vs. Angelsbacked Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$269Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$248.16
Twins vs. Tigersbacked Twins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT+150%+$209.99
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro mugshot released by January 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$11
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+132.6%+$17.1
All 2 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Sep 15, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
WNBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Storm vs. Acesbacked Storm · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$450Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$450
WNBA: Aces vs. Storm Game 2backed Aces · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$194Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2024, EDT+28.2%+$54.85
All 2 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 27, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 27, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+130.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron's next contract average $15M-$50M per year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+130.5%+$40.76
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5)backed Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$23.96
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Diplo run the 5k in under 20 minutes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+40.8%+$5.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 2-8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.61
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 9 above $100?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.12
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Conagra Brands (CAG) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Khamzat Chimaev fight Sean Strickland next?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$65
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Sep 26, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rangers beat Malmo?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2024, EDT-100%-$177.17
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.