Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 22-23°F on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5731efb17fccb7f2e14d9cc8bca211302c684edb1c778130fe4169dc905a7bcc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,958 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ba7…3ad3backed No | 10c | 3,500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 28cpaid | +400%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…662dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,140$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -70%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b7…b36ebacked No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 7cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…ca6bbacked No | 55c | 746.29$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.37 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 13c | 518.56$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.56 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…98c3backed No | 10c | 500$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 22cpaid | +297.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 25c | 493.69$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.47 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb7…58f1backed Yes | 39c | 491.98$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.53 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1181…030dbacked Yes | 23c | 403.62$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.34 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 24c | 383.57$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.41 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…5476backed Yes | 65c | 342.4$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 308.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.96 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 35c | 292$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.22 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 43c | 279.39$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.15 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 78c | 270$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.81 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 27c | 238.11$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.71 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 72c | 230.19$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.47 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 59c | 229.13$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.42 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 53c | 224.7$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.74 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 205.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 62c | 203.03$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.66 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 31c | 198.17$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.18 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 175$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 47c | 169.08$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.98 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes | 45c | 160.59$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.84 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 29c | 158.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.11 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 15c | 155.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.96 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 62c | 151.37$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.55 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 148.39$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed No | 68c | 147.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.48 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 67c | 144.36$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 56c | 135.04$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.62 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 25c | 133.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 44c | 131.64$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.82 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c2…d167backed Yes | 33c | 130$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7902…0fadbacked Yes | 43c | 121.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 115.86$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 27c | 114.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked No | 64c | 112.79$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 32c | 105$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 33c | 103.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.61 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.63 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…ace5backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 47c | 99.41$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.43 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 19c | 98.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 37c | 90.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 38c | 90$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 32c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 26c | 89.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 52c | 87.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed Yes | 50c | 85.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 73c | 81.62$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 38c | 81.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe124…f4babacked Yes | 22c | 81.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 34c | 80.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Yes | 22c | 80.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 15c | 80.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…9080backed Yes | 34c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfec0…251abacked Yes | 25c | 74.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 16c | 70.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 29c | 70.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7108…b510backed No | 21c | 70$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 40cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22fe…20c6backed Yes | 32c | 67.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e8b7backed Yes | 30c | 61.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 52c | 59.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 58.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 34c | 56.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed No | 80c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8c…d084backed Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed Yes | 25c | 54.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 29c | 54.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 68c | 54.22$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 51c | 53.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 52.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…66ddbacked Yes | 46c | 51.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ba…3954backed No | 64c | 48.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 43c | 46.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 56c | 43.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 68c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 30c | 41.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de5…3d0fbacked Yes | 25c | 40.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd05…0e6ebacked No | 56c | 40.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ec…8debbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 69c | 36.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 79c | 35.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 62c | 35.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b9…b47fbacked No | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked No | 48c | 33.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e84…d064backed No | 43c | 31.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 74c | 31.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 80c | 31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked No | 77c | 30.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 44c | 30.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…260cbacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 22-23°F on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 13°F or below on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 32°F or higher on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 16-17°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 18-19°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 20-21°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 24-25°F on March 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 26-27°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 28-29°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 30-31°F on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.