Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 24-25°F on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0356918ca3fb76da7d2fde06db5d8fddc5b1020013e9942592377baca0d7a7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,921
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,921 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07e4…c2a9backed Yes | 33c | 2,660$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,782.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b11…8761backed Yes | 33c | 2,555$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,711.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef1c…8facbacked No | 67c | 1,336$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdddc…9523backed No | 67c | 1,324$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe41b…7aedbacked No | 67c | 1,305$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c3…a831backed No | 67c | 1,250$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 52c | 1,142$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.29 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 70c | 674.71$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.86 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 30c | 635.17$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.73 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 11c | 613.51$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 29c | 552.81$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.47 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb7…58f1backed Yes | 47c | 549.53$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.96 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 69c | 548$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.38 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 11c | 499.02$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.79 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 14c | 456.37$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.86 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 26c | 403.64$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.3 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 26c | 399.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.6 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 341.7$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c2…d167backed Yes | 32c | 319.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.2 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 40c | 292$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.01 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 68c | 234.02$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.11 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 208.5$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.87 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 53c | 178.48$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.48 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 165.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.66 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 24c | 162.49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 40c | 152$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.3 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 32c | 150.4$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.77 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 69c | 149.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 142.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 17c | 139.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.23 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…66ddbacked Yes | 17c | 138.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.39 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 31c | 135.4$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.93 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 75c | 131.69$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.44 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf84d…5e65backed Yes | 74c | 131.27$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.33 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 79c | 126.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.58 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 39c | 115.13$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.13 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…9080backed No | 50c | 110.34$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7902…0fadbacked Yes | 31c | 108.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.14 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 77c | 107.35$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.49 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1de1…7cf6backed Yes | 28c | 107.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.32 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 31c | 105$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.1 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…ace5backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 26c | 99.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.98 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 26c | 99.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.98 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…64e4backed No | 30c | 97.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 30c | 96.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.67 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…616cbacked Yes | 63c | 95.05$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 47c | 94.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.79 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 35c | 81.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 23c | 79.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.59 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 56c | 78.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 38c | 75.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.66 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0534…4300backed Yes | 43c | 74$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.22per pick | 67cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 32c | 73.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 65c | 69.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.65 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 68.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.22 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 75c | 66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 52c | 65.73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 31c | 63.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4c…444cbacked No | 69c | 63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 34c | 58.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 20c | 58.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.49 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 69c | 57.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 34c | 56.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 36c | 56.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 34c | 56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…692abacked No | 67c | 51.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 75c | 50.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x266c…4470backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d50…a4c1backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e8b7backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20b8…fc2fbacked Yes | 31c | 49.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 49.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 49.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 48.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed Yes | 67c | 44.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Yes | 28c | 44.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf387…5414backed Yes | 46c | 43.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f3…769bbacked No | 72c | 42.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 41.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb2…14d6backed No | 70c | 41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e76…95cdbacked Yes | 78c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed No | 31c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 33c | 39.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 74c | 39.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…9427backed No | 71c | 36.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 36.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked Yes | 29c | 36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 78c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b9…b47fbacked No | 67c | 36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 71c | 35.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…260cbacked Yes | 44c | 34.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 24-25°F on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 13°F or below on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 32°F or higher on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 16-17°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 18-19°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 20-21°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 22-23°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 26-27°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 28-29°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 30-31°F on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.