Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 26-27°F on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43926f1cacd422ba6414fb678d2ba7c257d41e611f6f3f1aa6910350e87f680d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,341 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 6c | 719.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ed…372fbacked Yes | 14c | 572.76$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.63 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 12c | 517.47$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.21 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 5c | 509.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed Yes | 3c | 413.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 292$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 291.73$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 12c | 268.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked Yes | 16c | 248.53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb7…58f1backed Yes | 17c | 241.93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 19c | 240.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 8c | 232.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 79c | 218.91$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 77c | 215.11$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 208.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c2…d167backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 11c | 175.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 170.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 15c | 169.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 10c | 168.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 8c | 158.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 14c | 149.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 137.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 9c | 135$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 13c | 116.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 106.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 11c | 105.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 13c | 105$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0067…446fbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 99.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 21c | 98.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc293…c389backed No | 80c | 85$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 38 | 86.8%33 W · 5 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 70cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 77c | 59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 30c | 33.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 80c | 26.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…7935backed No | 77c | 25.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…e1b2backed No | 79c | 15.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 60 | 71.7%43 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa685…c2b3backed No | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 26-27°F on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 13°F or below on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 32°F or higher on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 16-17°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 18-19°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 20-21°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 22-23°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 24-25°F on March 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 28-29°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 30-31°F on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.