Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd83bda950d2658ee644a3253fedf420ecb943ddfe035d18a640d644fe7d32b17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 73c | 4,074$2,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081.36 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 67c | 2,115$1,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.77 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 27c | 1,129$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.28 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 23c | 845.31$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.49 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 37c | 827.38$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.55 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0050…cad1backed No | 33c | 668.66$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.72 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 25c | 665$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.81 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 23c | 604.24$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.69 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 25c | 593.08$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 35c | 586.4$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.14 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 21c | 439.38$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 420.42$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.96 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 31c | 408.21$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 20c | 346.71$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.89 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 22c | 332.63$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.69 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 11c | 302.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 31c | 290$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.9 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 13c | 288.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 34c | 277.9$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.49 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 26c | 234$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed No | 22c | 226.51$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 31c | 220$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 26c | 210.83$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 15c | 207$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.2 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 12c | 198.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 32c | 188.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 10c | 179$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 26c | 178.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x267d…ed00backed Yes | 60c | 175.01$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.01 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 75c | 174.82$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 17c | 165$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 27c | 158.81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 73c | 147.54$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 16c | 145.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 13c | 140.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 56c | 138.59$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.49 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 18c | 130$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 29c | 129.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 76c | 123.75$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…3895backed No | 31c | 123$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 62c | 117.87$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes | 67c | 115.32$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 32c | 115$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked No | 12c | 112.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x073d…38e3backed No | 22c | 111.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 22c | 104.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed No | 23c | 103.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…a7b3backed No | 33c | 90.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 22c | 81.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 51c | 77.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc94f…7e87backed Yes | 67c | 67.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74f5…0f06backed Yes | 67c | 67.51$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +153.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked No | 23c | 67.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 31c | 66.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 15c | 66.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…d287backed Yes | 67c | 64.47$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 78c | 63.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc245…bccbbacked No | 48c | 60.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 64c | 54.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc20…c5dbbacked Yes | 67c | 53.62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 39c | 53.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e97…96cebacked No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed No | 23c | 49.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed No | 23c | 48.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked No | 23c | 48.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…79b1backed No | 23c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae5f…bc30backed No | 23c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 23c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 30c | 46.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 23c | 45.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 65c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 34c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 33c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 48c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…4306backed No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…0643backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…ace5backed No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 78c | 34.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 62c | 33.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 51c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeef…b7f7backed Yes | 80c | 32.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4753…1ef1backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 60cpaid | -60%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…4c65backed Yes | 51c | 27.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.