Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ce49f26a29f3055f279087fb1498982af1d0d9c00c6e2c790f6339980a92cfe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,300
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,724
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,300 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked No | 78c | 1,844$1,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.41 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 4c | 1,205$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 9c | 887.7$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.44 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 8c | 407.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 21c | 240$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 236.85$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 24c | 235$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 16c | 230.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…0f87backed Yes | 6c | 211.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…e45ebacked Yes | 9c | 157.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 11c | 147.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 9c | 134.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 9c | 122.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…b81fbacked Yes | 33c | 118.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355d…1052backed Yes | 33c | 116.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 18c | 114.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…ca40backed Yes | 33c | 110.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 107.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 11c | 105.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 14c | 101.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 13c | 92.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked Yes | 31c | 83.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 13c | 82.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 12c | 82.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 16c | 78.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d31…13c3backed Yes | 19c | 77.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 19c | 77.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 75.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed Yes | 27c | 72.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 19c | 72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 23c | 69.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 23c | 66.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Yes | 20c | 63.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…e06fbacked No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed No | 76c | 52.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4b…0256backed Yes | 23c | 50.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 25c | 49.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 49.18$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 48.8$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 64c | 43.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 41c | 41.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 37c | 35.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…006dbacked No | 77c | 35.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…8607backed No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 71c | 30.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 78c | 15.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbabc…f582backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 78c | 14.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 72c | 14.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 80c | 12.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.51 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.