Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34608936af3591ef966d0c1175f477497698d7a4c0a734917c12e8dc97349b88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 60c | 871.01$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.8 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 10c | 718.43$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8867…7683backed Yes | 4c | 516.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 7c | 338.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 48c | 295.96$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.29 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 51c | 214.38$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.05 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 9c | 158.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 120$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked Yes | 10c | 106.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 19c | 104$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac31…42c6backed No | 70c | 101.42$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 40c | 98.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 51c | 96.77$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…0d4bbacked Yes | 54c | 95.64$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 51c | 94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.34 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba1…b4e2backed No | 35c | 85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 40c | 79.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 54c | 63.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 51c | 53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 41c | 52.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 44c | 52.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0f16…016bbacked Yes | 51c | 48.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f23…f9d9backed No | 38c | 44.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca84…6f8dbacked No | 49c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 46c | 43.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 38c | 42.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 48c | 42.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 41c | 40.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0366…ec39backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed6…85aebacked Yes | 53c | 37.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 61c | 35.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb11f…336fbacked Yes | 45c | 35.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e3…6863backed Yes | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 32.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…ace5backed No | 49c | 30.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 54c | 28.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd98…1211backed Yes | 47c | 27.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…04d4backed Yes | 45c | 24.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d98…b354backed Yes | 56c | 24.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1073…d8babacked Yes | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 48 | 79.2%38 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…7265backed No | 53c | 21.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 69cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes | 57c | 21.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…5d25backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 17.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0546…17a9backed No | 71c | 14.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 8?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on July 8?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 8?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.