Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93f5eb638671a9f19a8d89aaf7779c81f7954946fd494899454f63951a789c97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,646 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x35bb…15a6backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…0a1bbacked No | 2c | 8,800$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 493.27$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.08 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 411.5$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.62 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 13c | 380.34$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 634 | 24.1%153 W · 481 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 68c | 213.07$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.23 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 43c | 200.02$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.1 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 8c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 26c | 188.28$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 10c | 179.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 39c | 170.86$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.06 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 34c | 166$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.97 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 55c | 159.94$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.49 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 70c | 152.49$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 33c | 133.15$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.57 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 61c | 104.2$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 1,829 | 42.6%780 W · 1,049 L | +51.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 40c | 97.63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.63 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 83.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x15a1…5ef3backed No | 64c | 77.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 41c | 76.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 38c | 73.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…567fbacked Yes | 39c | 72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.15 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea4…1bc7backed Yes | 31c | 64.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f1…907dbacked Yes | 34c | 62.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -62%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 61.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 4,014 | 35.6%1,428 W · 2,586 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 37c | 58.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.71 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed No | 51c | 54.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked No | 68c | 54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 67c | 53.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…ace5backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 68c | 49.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a7…20fbbacked Yes | 63c | 47.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed Yes | 32c | 44.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 62c | 43.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 25c | 40.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…616cbacked Yes | 40c | 37.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 41c | 36.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 74c | 33.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…9747backed No | 48c | 32.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed Yes | 34c | 31.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…ab39backed Yes | 74c | 27.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 56c | 26.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 71c | 24.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 67c | 21.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 1,367 | 69.2%946 W · 421 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb3…f497backed No | 64c | 17.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 79c | 12.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.65 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 16°C or below on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 17°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 18°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C or higher on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.