Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95f2beb0936c39d202733f16658ea3199b035e1de5148b73edb98c4b61b351cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,706
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,706 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4146…8d09backed Yes | 1c | 1,311$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f1…907dbacked Yes | 18c | 757.42$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.93 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -62%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…567fbacked Yes | 19c | 573.93$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.67 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 77c | 525.72$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.14 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 434.5$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.14 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 420.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.21 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed No | 76c | 375.25$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.84 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…5d1cbacked Yes | 36c | 310.96$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccde…66ddbacked Yes | 24c | 294.23$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 75c | 236.7$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.25 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 17c | 213.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 24c | 206.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.62 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 24c | 199.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 195.04$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 177.42$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.36 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 26c | 170.21$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 31c | 166$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 139.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…932fbacked Yes | 36c | 135.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 17c | 132.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 24c | 122.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 105$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 73c | 101.43$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 94.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 34c | 90.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 25c | 85.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 31c | 78.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a2…27a0backed Yes | 26c | 75.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 28c | 71.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea4…1bc7backed Yes | 29c | 68.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 30c | 67.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed Yes | 31c | 65.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 34c | 58.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…3377backed Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 75c | 49.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 45.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…692abacked No | 77c | 45.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…ab39backed Yes | 37c | 42.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 29c | 40.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8c…d084backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 31c | 37.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed Yes | 27c | 37.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 30c | 37.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 71c | 33.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…2d9dbacked No | 75c | 33.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b31…b4d2backed No | 76c | 26.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9c…c416backed No | 76c | 24.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 72c | 20.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…9747backed No | 62c | 19.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194c…88c5backed No | 68c | 15.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 72c | 14.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 16°C or below on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 17°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 18°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on March 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C or higher on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.