Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cac3ff7a9fa49abad5501ce00ae291c560136845f2ae55efeea6e32400a23e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $361,886
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $390,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $361,886 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 427 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 52c | 15,933$8,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,361.49 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 51c | 11,850$6,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,834.96 | 563 | 29.8%168 W · 395 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5808…0b74backed Yes | 49c | 8,894$4,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,573.77 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed No | 3c | 7,194$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.58 | 124 | 29%36 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…d8dcbacked Yes | 53c | 6,037$3,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,822.61 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 44c | 5,205$2,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,920.11 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 45c | 4,650$2,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,571.99 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2e…4257backed Yes | 64c | 4,392$2,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,562.78 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 43c | 4,138$1,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,346.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf48…136dbacked No | 42c | 4,000$1,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,674.97 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 61c | 3,060$1,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,863.5 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45a0…5963backed Yes | 52c | 3,000$1,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,430 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9958…36b9backed Yes | 67c | 3,000$2,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked No | 52c | 2,779$1,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,453.22 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x577c…c836backed No | 30c | 2,751$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.63 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…e564backed Yes | 49c | 2,410$1,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,217.19 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d7…406dbacked Yes | 45c | 2,333$1,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,281.45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked No | 48c | 2,194$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.65 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…3e81backed Yes | 64c | 2,180$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.38 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ee…c635backed Yes | 75c | 2,170$1,628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.74 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…c64dbacked No | 33c | 2,165$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.63 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 47c | 2,159$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,144.26 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…f169backed No | 67c | 2,119$1,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,419.49 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 42c | 2,010$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,168.25 | 879 | 17.2%151 W · 728 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 19c | 1,987$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,609.03 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 41c | 1,913$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120.47 | 876 | 18.4%161 W · 715 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…f80dbacked No | 9c | 1,800$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 186 | 31.7%59 W · 127 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…e0bbbacked No | 58c | 1,800$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,051.96 | 187 | 26.7%50 W · 137 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 45c | 1,791$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987.43 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…af26backed Yes | 72c | 1,702$1,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.15 | 138 | 17.4%24 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 3c | 1,650$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 350 | 24%84 W · 266 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…eac8backed No | 54c | 1,561$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.91 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked No | 45c | 1,543$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.24 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…a88cbacked No | 35c | 1,500$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 28c | 1,495$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,069.08 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7061…9233backed Yes | 74c | 1,487$1,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.2 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5409…79dbbacked Yes | 32c | 1,450$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$983.76 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b7…227bbacked Yes | 33c | 1,430$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.46 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 60c | 1,418$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.01 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…c167backed Yes | 11c | 1,404$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,251.42 | 177 | 23.2%41 W · 136 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 50c | 1,385$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.25 | 532 | 22.7%121 W · 411 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdee0…5447backed Yes | 77c | 1,312$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.6 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…c12cbacked No | 1c | 1,300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 124 | 24.2%30 W · 94 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed No | 64c | 1,274$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.2 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…dbdbbacked Yes | 69c | 1,237$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 48c | 1,184$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.63 | 574 | 20.9%120 W · 454 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 48c | 1,170$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.14 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0dd…19eabacked Yes | 55c | 1,165$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.43 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc41f…2a81backed Yes | 55c | 1,152$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.03 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b69…16d4backed No | 65c | 1,148$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.04 | 223 | 27.8%62 W · 161 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ab…e99cbacked No | 20c | 1,085$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.05 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…892bbacked No | 12c | 1,029$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.62 | 177 | 17.5%31 W · 146 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1287…85adbacked Yes | 57c | 1,014$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.89 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 51c | 1,011$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.93 | 108 | 40.7%44 W · 64 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x544a…dbe1backed No | 61c | 1,000$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…558bbacked No | 18c | 999.96$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.99 | 181 | 23.8%43 W · 138 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed No | 34c | 986.42$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.94 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf37…2454backed No | 32c | 977.9$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.93 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +81%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 33c | 977.02$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.15 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbced…7f66backed No | 3c | 959.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 197 | 26.9%53 W · 144 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9c…9a07backed No | 32c | 956.19$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.79 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…2423backed Yes | 37c | 885.72$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.1 | 176 | 28.4%50 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes | 19c | 880.19$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.76 | 78 | 15.4%12 W · 66 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a03…d5cebacked No | 52c | 865.01$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.78 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…7a48backed Yes | 57c | 850.87$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.13 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc78b…2ca5backed Yes | 56c | 850.58$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.47 | 101 | 25.7%26 W · 75 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 54c | 850$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b67…60aabacked Yes | 33c | 840.16$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.16 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 56c | 835.22$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.26 | 146 | 25.3%37 W · 109 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 31c | 831.01$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.4 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…1af9backed Yes | 47c | 806.18$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.38 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda5…414fbacked No | 54c | 799.98$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…45d7backed No | 62c | 792.93$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.12 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5174…0c80backed Yes | 51c | 736$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…5305backed Yes | 23c | 732.53$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.42 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 30c | 708.82$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.81 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…2db3backed No | 3c | 686.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 40cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeae1…65ecbacked Yes | 52c | 683.86$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.27 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…f380backed No | 57c | 646.81$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.82 | 176 | 31.8%56 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked No | 51c | 645.27$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.37 | 630 | 21.7%137 W · 493 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea1e…2858backed No | 62c | 638.76$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.86 | 117 | 29.1%34 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e71…01bfbacked Yes | 11c | 637.74$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.67 | 72 | 11.1%8 W · 64 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…4612backed No | 50c | 637.66$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.42 | 273 | 16.8%46 W · 227 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7684…15c4backed Yes | 22c | 630.25$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.96 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15fb…252dbacked Yes | 53c | 600$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 39c | 599$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.81 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…0df3backed No | 51c | 593.79$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.31 | 117 | 25.6%30 W · 87 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 588.96$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.82 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 47c | 584.96$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.1 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c7…5d81backed Yes | 46c | 578.88$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.36 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 46c | 556.68$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.07 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa471…8b84backed Yes | 50c | 551.09$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.05 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb51…1135backed Yes | 22c | 542.57$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.77 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae0d…7df9backed Yes | 23c | 515.42$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.49 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes | 20c | 515.24$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.98 | 183 | 21.9%40 W · 143 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfac…490fbacked No | 69c | 507.64$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.45 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…955bbacked Yes | 18c | 507.35$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 52c | 507.3$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.7 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5088…8844backed No | 47c | 506.05$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.32 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.