Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa17280ddbcf33018fba8428b3fc949ae868f8b100b446c748251cf45fc87510
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $135,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,090
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $135,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 0c | 17,527$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 2c | 17,063$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.74 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 4c | 6,026$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.46 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 4c | 4,656$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.26 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 3,864$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x341c…1bd6backed Yes | 4c | 2,923$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac32…6e3bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,768$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.04 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ae…a3efbacked Yes | 6c | 2,557$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.89 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,885$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.28 | 730 | 4.5%33 W · 697 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 5c | 1,820$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.1 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,696$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67bf…b296backed Yes | 5c | 1,485$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.14 | 360 | 18.9%68 W · 292 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 4c | 1,393$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.89 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a43…71afbacked Yes | 3c | 1,244$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 128 | 8.6%11 W · 117 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 5c | 1,228$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.38 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 4c | 1,156$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +10.0wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67da…440ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,125$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 211 | 6.6%14 W · 197 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 9c | 1,040$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.87 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa5…e581backed Yes | 8c | 1,027$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.05 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ee…c635backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 4c | 787.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 4c | 732.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 4c | 693.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…5192backed Yes | 7c | 647.73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 4c | 638.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 303 | 17.2%52 W · 251 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 4c | 554.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 72 | 15.3%11 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 4c | 543.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27e0…b09bbacked Yes | 4c | 504.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 68 | 8.8%6 W · 62 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes | 6c | 487.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4683…a639backed Yes | 6c | 483.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4a…4896backed Yes | 5c | 455.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 9c | 453.89$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a03…d5cebacked Yes | 4c | 429.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 427.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 4c | 421.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 4c | 411.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…dd2abacked Yes | 5c | 410.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc819…8c33backed Yes | 6c | 409.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +105.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…e64fbacked Yes | 5c | 393.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 91 | 26.4%24 W · 67 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74b6…41d8backed Yes | 6c | 357.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 3c | 350$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x280b…d619backed Yes | 4c | 331.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x389c…8005backed Yes | 5c | 316.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 109 | 25.7%28 W · 81 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 5c | 308.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 182 | 4.4%8 W · 174 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b0…70a4backed Yes | 6c | 293.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec6…4558backed Yes | 7c | 291.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe2…58babacked Yes | 5c | 270.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c04…6587backed Yes | 5c | 261.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 470 | 32.6%153 W · 317 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49a0…c46cbacked Yes | 6c | 231.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba66…79d8backed Yes | 5c | 219.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 6c | 214.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 108 | 40.7%44 W · 64 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 7c | 200.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f9f…0ad6backed Yes | 6c | 181.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 86 | 9.3%8 W · 78 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…4612backed Yes | 7c | 149.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 273 | 16.8%46 W · 227 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.