Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27e7fddd52f9f808a784accdd26f9940048af893cc37deef0343b14e72a538cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $475,949
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $361,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $475,949 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 1c | 28,334$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.72 | 350 | 24%84 W · 266 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 2c | 18,360$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.65 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,735$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 212 | 20.3%43 W · 169 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +610.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 3c | 11,263$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.24 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 8c | 10,101$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.65 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53e1…6a12backed Yes | 2c | 9,560$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.99 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcded…b1ecbacked Yes | 0c | 9,500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec4…bfe9backed Yes | 3c | 7,737$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.85 | 165 | 6.7%11 W · 154 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 6c | 5,554$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.05 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 3c | 4,936$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.23 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 1c | 4,767$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.44 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 4c | 4,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 4c | 3,808$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.77 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 5c | 3,741$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.34 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 6c | 2,958$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.12 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,817$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6adb…1e01backed Yes | 1c | 2,558$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6496…8e19backed Yes | 1c | 2,530$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 178 | 17.4%31 W · 147 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 9c | 2,358$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…4612backed Yes | 9c | 2,168$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.86 | 273 | 16.8%46 W · 227 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 3c | 2,083$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.74 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,074$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.31 | 730 | 4.5%33 W · 697 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 1c | 1,988$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 5c | 1,916$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.47 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae0d…7df9backed Yes | 8c | 1,857$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.66 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 1,835$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,792$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.06 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes | 1c | 1,709$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 78 | 15.4%12 W · 66 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 1c | 1,640$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…67b8backed Yes | 4c | 1,615$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.13 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 2c | 1,602$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,551$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 3c | 1,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7094…2c4dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 3c | 1,481$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67da…440ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,460$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 211 | 6.6%14 W · 197 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6541…474fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,457$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a43…71afbacked Yes | 2c | 1,393$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 128 | 8.6%11 W · 117 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc41f…2a81backed Yes | 8c | 1,376$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.32 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2559…460bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,364$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.43 | 264 | 18.6%49 W · 215 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…892bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,355$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 179 | 17.9%32 W · 147 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 6c | 1,349$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.06 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 2c | 1,310$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacfe…b2fabacked Yes | 6c | 1,275$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.21 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 5c | 1,220$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed Yes | 4c | 1,200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 212 | 15.1%32 W · 180 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 5c | 1,184$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 146 | 25.3%37 W · 109 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…5439backed Yes | 5c | 1,157$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.65 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5b…eb72backed Yes | 4c | 1,141$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b0…70a4backed Yes | 3c | 1,103$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb56b…28dbbacked Yes | 6c | 1,099$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.32 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,092$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.58 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 7c | 1,044$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.07 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db2…be55backed Yes | 3c | 1,044$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…66a8backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 201 | 29.4%59 W · 142 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 167 | 16.2%27 W · 140 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ee…c635backed Yes | 10c | 999.77$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.7 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 7c | 958.01$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.29 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 4c | 944.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 6c | 928.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.47 | 108 | 40.7%44 W · 64 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…06edbacked Yes | 6c | 912.66$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58cd…775abacked Yes | 7c | 909.59$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.25 | 386 | 14.2%55 W · 331 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…eac8backed Yes | 6c | 900$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x960b…9303backed Yes | 4c | 889.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe46…8b21backed Yes | 2c | 869.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 218 | 16.1%35 W · 183 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…f380backed Yes | 11c | 830.34$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.74 | 176 | 31.8%56 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…0ed2backed Yes | 4c | 800$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes | 10c | 800$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 320 | 16.6%53 W · 267 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…a44dbacked Yes | 6c | 799.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 171 | 26.9%46 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3248…e3f8backed Yes | 4c | 779.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 5c | 772.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5668…1f91backed Yes | 9c | 725.35$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.42 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd938…7786backed Yes | 2c | 701.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 6c | 690.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 5c | 688.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 130 | 31.5%41 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeae1…65ecbacked Yes | 3c | 678.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380f…8229backed Yes | 5c | 674.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 177 | 22.6%40 W · 137 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…dd2abacked Yes | 4c | 640.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc78b…2ca5backed Yes | 6c | 606.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 101 | 25.7%26 W · 75 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…e64fbacked Yes | 3c | 600$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 91 | 26.4%24 W · 67 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 7c | 598.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes | 10c | 598.87$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.7 | 183 | 21.9%40 W · 143 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked Yes | 3c | 562.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 542.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes | 7c | 513.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac32…6e3bbacked Yes | 9c | 508.71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27e0…b09bbacked Yes | 3c | 506.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 68 | 8.8%6 W · 62 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1907…8174backed Yes | 4c | 499.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 2c | 499.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec8e…39b0backed Yes | 3c | 490.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 7c | 458.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…9f9fbacked Yes | 2c | 457.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…5c90backed Yes | 3c | 447.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a26…a03bbacked Yes | 3c | 439.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Yes | 8c | 435.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…7518backed Yes | 10c | 435.72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddc7…89efbacked Yes | 6c | 433.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b75…c2dbbacked Yes | 7c | 402.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed Yes | 5c | 399.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 190 | 20.5%39 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.