Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9633515d0552dc377de75d8048229335546648182e84568bc3a1267d1c645d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $281,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $243,133
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $281,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 327 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcfb5…0d6abacked Yes | 4c | 16,213$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.35 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 69c | 13,401$9,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,155.65 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x274c…4824backed Yes | 8c | 6,063$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.01 | 84 | 25%21 W · 63 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 28c | 4,552$1,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,274.02 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 54c | 4,157$2,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,226.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…892bbacked Yes | 7c | 4,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 179 | 17.9%32 W · 147 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 6c | 4,000$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked No | 62c | 3,406$2,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,278 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6adb…1e01backed Yes | 1c | 3,321$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d7…406dbacked No | 68c | 3,153$2,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 8c | 3,053$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.48 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 2c | 3,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 6c | 3,000$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc78b…2ca5backed Yes | 37c | 2,785$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.62 | 101 | 25.7%26 W · 75 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,700$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 212 | 20.3%43 W · 169 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +610.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 47c | 2,437$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146.64 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 73c | 2,368$1,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.02 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…c64dbacked Yes | 41c | 2,069$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.97 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 5c | 2,029$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.49 | 350 | 24%84 W · 266 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes | 39c | 2,000$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770 | 78 | 15.4%12 W · 66 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3db2…0f2ebacked No | 74c | 2,000$1,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 6c | 1,983$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.22 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked No | 42c | 1,979$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,143.57 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 10c | 1,950$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.77 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde99…8449backed Yes | 4c | 1,863$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.53 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 17c | 1,786$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.1 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…c167backed Yes | 37c | 1,720$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.03 | 177 | 23.2%41 W · 136 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 50c | 1,547$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.2 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,544$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.9 | 730 | 4.5%33 W · 697 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 63c | 1,500$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.99 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2e…4257backed No | 65c | 1,496$971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.06 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 1,491$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2b…6813backed Yes | 32c | 1,447$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x577c…c836backed Yes | 33c | 1,411$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.53 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb9…a2b2backed Yes | 10c | 1,410$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Yes | 12c | 1,315$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.87 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 10c | 1,200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 34c | 1,192$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.47 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 39c | 1,182$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.34 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec6…4558backed Yes | 37c | 1,176$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.99 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 17c | 1,144$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.56 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41f…2a81backed Yes | 27c | 1,117$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.2 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 7c | 1,100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8c…dbefbacked Yes | 43c | 1,080$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.76 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9947…23febacked Yes | 57c | 1,045$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…66a8backed Yes | 18c | 1,026$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.32 | 201 | 29.4%59 W · 142 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…3e81backed Yes | 57c | 1,014$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.03 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ee…c635backed Yes | 35c | 999.99$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a0…5963backed Yes | 37c | 976.48$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.56 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed No | 77c | 941.72$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.72 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes | 28c | 940.18$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.18 | 187 | 26.7%50 W · 137 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…2423backed Yes | 58c | 900$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522 | 176 | 28.4%50 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 42c | 893.66$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.38 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 23c | 886.6$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.15 | 146 | 25.3%37 W · 109 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 7c | 884.59$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.26 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa471…8b84backed Yes | 7c | 879.82$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.9 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…06edbacked Yes | 42c | 758.66$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.65 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a43…71afbacked Yes | 15c | 751.71$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.44 | 128 | 8.6%11 W · 117 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 36c | 739.76$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.19 | 395 | 18.7%74 W · 321 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x58cd…775abacked Yes | 12c | 733.67$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.6 | 386 | 14.2%55 W · 331 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6496…8e19backed Yes | 15c | 731.44$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.92 | 178 | 17.4%31 W · 147 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 27c | 696.34$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.68 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3db2…be55backed Yes | 7c | 662.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…a8f4backed No | 61c | 662.86$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.16 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…9ad6backed Yes | 9c | 656.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.08 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 18c | 645.07$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.76 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 29c | 644.88$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.76 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e78backed No | 80c | 644.77$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.95 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…b689backed Yes | 32c | 629.99$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e1…6a12backed Yes | 24c | 611.28$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.78 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 29c | 607.27$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.11 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 51c | 599.49$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.57 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9c…9a07backed Yes | 32c | 582.5$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.4 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 61c | 565.34$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.83 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd341…b73fbacked Yes | 8c | 564.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…b5a0backed Yes | 34c | 553$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.32 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a1…ebcabacked Yes | 53c | 552.43$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.51 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7e…0332backed Yes | 28c | 549.97$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.99 | 151 | 5.3%8 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +227.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96f9…0c3bbacked Yes | 41c | 541.41$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.21 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes | 13c | 538.05$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.22 | 183 | 21.9%40 W · 143 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…77acbacked Yes | 16c | 533.86$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.46 | 159 | 25.2%40 W · 119 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed Yes | 45c | 499.99$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.99 | 190 | 20.5%39 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ae…a3efbacked Yes | 58c | 499.98$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.99 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec4…bfe9backed Yes | 9c | 497.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 165 | 6.7%11 W · 154 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 39c | 494.88$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.03 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86e1…62c8backed No | 73c | 491.96$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.83 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa1…95b4backed Yes | 41c | 479.76$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.91 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb57…6a21backed Yes | 62c | 466.5$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.56 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 443.43$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb614…2a44backed Yes | 32c | 435.1$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.64 | 113 | 39.8%45 W · 68 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…5439backed Yes | 37c | 426.1$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.43 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b0…70a4backed Yes | 7c | 420.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb68e…3ebabacked Yes | 33c | 417.47$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.28 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 410.75$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.29 | 264 | 61.7%163 W · 101 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 212 | 33%70 W · 142 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 4c | 400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5808…0b74backed Yes | 65c | 399.21$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.49 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 54c | 396.96$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.45 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7e…3b66backed Yes | 60c | 395.32$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.19 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.