TailMyPicks
Market

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$287,664
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$153,837

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $287,664 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 223 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1830…1e96backed Yes0c40,256$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed Yes7c12,393$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829.6811556.5%65 W · 50 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes4c10,787$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.6834425.6%88 W · 256 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2ef…e1edbacked Yes2c8,339$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.83520%7 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-51.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb51…1135backed Yes2c7,078$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.33825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes1c6,849$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9817723.2%41 W · 136 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes1c6,457$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.844568.3%38 W · 418 L+1.3wins0.00per pick8cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c5,850$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.461,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes23c5,737$1,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,303.963414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes10c5,370$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.0256429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes34c4,646$1,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,587.9957222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes6c4,561$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.681,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8d7…406dbacked Yes13c3,915$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.21850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-17.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes18c2,838$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.7178111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5409…79dbbacked Yes7c2,754$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.321435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes9c2,700$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.4657621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes1c2,488$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9423019.1%44 W · 186 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes19c2,186$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.272,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a43…71afbacked Yes7c2,175$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.721288.6%11 W · 117 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-62.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes9c2,143$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.688017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes6c2,065$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.782116.6%14 W · 197 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes9c1,989$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.4188018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked No57c1,953$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$842.9220735.3%73 W · 134 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes22c1,923$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.6150913.8%70 W · 439 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes10c1,906$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.4127316.8%46 W · 227 L+0.6wins0.00per pick17cpaid-38.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No70c1,896$1,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.9431565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes10c1,871$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.3563821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked No79c1,783$1,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.0928025.4%71 W · 209 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66a7…2bdcbacked Yes1c1,654$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes37c1,496$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.1218822.3%42 W · 146 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes11c1,410$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.851,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6a3…df40backed Yes2c1,300$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.211624.1%28 W · 88 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes1c1,232$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.611,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa7e…0332backed Yes7c1,230$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.11515.3%8 W · 143 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid+227.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes4c1,221$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8329227.7%81 W · 211 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x243e…69debacked Yes42c1,191$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes38c1,191$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.2748819.3%94 W · 394 L+0.5wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ec4…bfe9backed Yes3c1,101$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.241656.7%11 W · 154 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1ee…c635backed Yes47c1,000$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.782638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8007…a8f4backed Yes2c999.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2515649.4%77 W · 79 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdb9…1418backed Yes3c993.3$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.825944.4%115 W · 144 L+10.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+21%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x26f0…1d60backed Yes7c983.74$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735416.7%9 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes3c903$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0928016.4%46 W · 234 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes10c898.15$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.4323819.3%46 W · 192 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e64…c134backed Yes4c873.87$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.83922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick16cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes41c863.49$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.8446521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes5c862.45$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2133422.2%74 W · 260 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34a0…b9eebacked No60c816$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.42846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+38.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a03…d5cebacked Yes3c796.95$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.431729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-49.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ae0…302dbacked No65c757.73$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.213844.2%61 W · 77 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes16c693.01$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.856417.2%11 W · 53 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-64.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b27…7908backed Yes3c690.79$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.029727.8%27 W · 70 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+67.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7061…9233backed Yes41c688.54$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.34639.1%18 W · 28 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No76c679.4$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.9226167%175 W · 86 L+0.3wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed Yes45c666.43$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.2310727.1%29 W · 78 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-49.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ca9…5fbbbacked Yes2c645.12$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes3c625$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8850319.5%98 W · 405 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-46.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes9c616.66$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5446137.5%173 W · 288 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec4c…f5bdbacked Yes20c599.45$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.18955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick37cpaid+20.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d73…9d35backed Yes43c594.78$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.8219317.6%34 W · 159 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes8c586.47$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3916427.4%45 W · 119 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb68e…3ebabacked Yes8c553.21$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.969627.1%26 W · 70 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed Yes5c537.12$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.899533.7%32 W · 63 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes3c533.82$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1338614.2%55 W · 331 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa55a…0c43backed Yes3c531.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.835219.2%10 W · 42 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+35.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes8c508.45$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.257304.5%33 W · 697 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-64.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes7c507.82$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2930110.3%31 W · 270 L+0.5wins0.00per pick10cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbced…7f66backed Yes11c506.64$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.319726.9%53 W · 144 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59d4…b745backed Yes2c500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.354841.7%20 W · 28 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+21.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes6c497.61$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.442176%13 W · 204 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecb5…f779backed Yes26c482.58$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.1416532.7%54 W · 111 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeec6…4558backed Yes37c480.15$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.062737%10 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes36c477.45$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.9118321.9%40 W · 143 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2000…2501backed Yes3c476.43$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.73250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe133…6994backed Yes43c471.5$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.7510432.7%34 W · 70 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ab8…3e81backed Yes9c446.4$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.997022.9%16 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-40.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc819…8c33backed Yes28c405.31$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.856224.2%15 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+105.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x89cc…394dbacked Yes39c404.64$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.895635.7%20 W · 36 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76fa…3ff4backed Yes8c400$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325418.5%10 W · 44 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-37.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes3c400$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110422.1%23 W · 81 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x15fb…252dbacked No61c399.96$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.981855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d15…eea3backed Yes8c362.13$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56ad…32e4backed Yes5c359.22$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2213229.5%39 W · 93 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+29%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc366…73cebacked Yes13c351.15$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.65258%2 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-31.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a63…dfb7backed Yes5c345.45$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes17c338.8$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9234215.8%54 W · 288 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes45c335.76$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.1666222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c27…94c7backed Yes3c334.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2c2…12e7backed Yes34c304.11$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacb9…0754backed Yes16c300.23$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.049636.5%35 W · 61 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes4c290.31$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.833231%103 W · 229 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe90…9590backed No62c288.57$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.943815.8%6 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-36.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f07…3f68backed Yes10c281.79$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2911721.4%25 W · 92 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick23cpaid+16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f5…f796backed Yes6c279.65$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.789412.8%12 W · 82 L+0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes48c270.83$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13037830.7%116 W · 262 L-17.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ff5…3fd6backed Yes38c268.79$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.8111017.3%19 W · 91 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e9c…2ec7backed Yes35c267.14$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.514219.7%28 W · 114 L-11.6wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-46%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x380f…8229backed Yes7c252.2$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1517722.6%40 W · 137 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0479…6422backed Yes48c237.92$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.925022%11 W · 39 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-36%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8032…7c6cbacked Yes8c227.56$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1624326.7%65 W · 178 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+21.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.