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Movies · resolved market

Will The Girl Who Cried Pearls win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$91,668
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$113,781

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,668 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x34fa…e937backed No0c28,566$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dee…f426backed No1c2,910$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.15119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-88%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56eb…076abacked Yes21c2,657$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,091.822152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+38.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1230…8e43backed No1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba3d…cdfabacked Yes24c1,202$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$913.52944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0895…4ddebacked Yes20c1,103$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882.4450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+57.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No22c1,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2205311.3%6 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1d7…8c45backed No80c955$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7642540%10 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-32.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x968f…a539backed No76c903$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.28955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+38%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c86…b75ebacked No80c854$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.2825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d58…34e0backed Yes25c809$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.751457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No55c790.03$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.7248636%175 W · 311 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes21c784.44$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.062512%3 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0c0…c4c9backed Yes24c708$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.082653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf666…8842backed Yes20c699$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.22352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+22.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x098e…6fa2backed No23c671$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.115437%20 W · 34 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-16.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1f6…595cbacked Yes20c642$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.61936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50eb…c59fbacked No75c614$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.5560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34be…6797backed No76c601$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.76757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49dd…2a32backed No78c550$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.953923.1%9 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-52%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3991…43f7backed No74c549.91$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0de2…9e62backed Yes26c549.91$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.93333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick13cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d34…7c14backed Yes20c544$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.29238%35 W · 57 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecb6…cfe8backed Yes18c525$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.51172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.26per pick46cpaid+88.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes10c500.99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.27020%14 W · 56 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d3d…aa1abacked No80c475$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+103.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5cc…3f0fbacked Yes21c467.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.082626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No76c381.62$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.113337.6%50 W · 83 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7e…275ebacked No76c380$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.8850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+116.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x910a…91a9backed Yes24c380$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.81735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes22c350.33$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.263938.5%15 W · 24 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f5c…91bfbacked No80c328$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.43256.3%18 W · 14 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+24.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x430f…5c08backed Yes27c324.42$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.821040%4 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick28cpaid-13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b74…93f7backed No76c314$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.642937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xceae…1cedbacked Yes22c290$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.863221.9%7 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed No70c281.65$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.16714.3%1 W · 6 L-3.2wins-0.46per pick60cpaid-76%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xce25…4e7dbacked Yes20c273$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.42948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+61.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcd9…6c92backed No80c273$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.4650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x146c…f5ccbacked Yes24c207.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.77850%4 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+57.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No78c200$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.138752.9%46 W · 41 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No64c199.99$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.8116741.9%70 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes22c195$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.128528.8%82 W · 203 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefc0…4942backed No76c176$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.761020%2 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-62.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes21c174$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.8420841.8%87 W · 121 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No74c168.28$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.9315641.7%65 W · 91 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad90…9090backed Yes20c155$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1245750.9%29 W · 28 L+6.8wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+50.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0192…ba59backed Yes27c149.22$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.222744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes26c144$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.91,4158%113 W · 1,302 L-48.7wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Yes25c140$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1055244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff2d…caf4backed No75c133$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.75837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a6f…deaebacked No76c107$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.32825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-53.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf5c…3912backed Yes23c104.34$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.351353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+36.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ae4…7da2backed Yes25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754544.4%20 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes22c98.52$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.8548414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x090c…3c25backed Yes24c96$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.961844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5dd2…ae40backed Yes24c95$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.2837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0327…5e15backed Yes23c90$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.31546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+41.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ee…9238backed Yes18c90$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.8837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid+10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8015…da39backed Yes17c86$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-24.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf49…6cfebacked No75c83$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.252356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ab1…58abbacked Yes26c76.92$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.92450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+39.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes29c76.72$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.45612.5%7 W · 49 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-76%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa113…93f4backed Yes26c76.65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.655625%14 W · 42 L-0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa72a…b12abacked Yes26c72.03$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.031540%6 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32df…cce8backed No74c67.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.95650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No74c62.22$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.313851.4%71 W · 67 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No78c58.96$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9214830.4%45 W · 103 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-29.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes20c58.06$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.5367232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e64…1824backed Yes30c56.67$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.67650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+64.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x476c…ce52backed Yes23c53$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.611833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+23.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c3d…3dd4backed Yes29c51.21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.36333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fa9…d3bebacked Yes21c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.51233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0523…ace5backed No79c50$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-67.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes23c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.513321.1%28 W · 105 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4218…ff0ebacked Yes23c45.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+344%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3ed…afd3backed No76c39.37$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes33c33.92$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.721,22317.8%218 W · 1,005 L-125.3wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No68c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.311339.8%45 W · 68 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-33%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed No78c28.46$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0712938.8%50 W · 79 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8328…935fbacked No77c27.27$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2130%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7022…f64ebacked No79c15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.845549.1%27 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3576…09debacked No77c15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.553053.3%16 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fff…0482backed Yes68c14.73$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.71540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.