Movies · resolved market
Will Retirement Plan win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f24faee0b4be5978b9efc81f8d41bf98e7c022950644bf310f9a75bec36502c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,799
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,799 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9b4…95b1backed Yes | 16c | 1,182$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Yes | 13c | 999.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceae…1cedbacked Yes | 17c | 943.9$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.83 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 16c | 926.29$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.2 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -76%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 13c | 887.96$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.77 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5516…2263backed Yes | 13c | 877$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.01 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bc…43e9backed Yes | 12c | 838$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.56 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0956…9aa4backed Yes | 12c | 694$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.28 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…77febacked Yes | 12c | 626$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.12 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x184f…a48fbacked Yes | 15c | 618$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes | 12c | 603$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.36 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed Yes | 12c | 513$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf46…4821backed Yes | 15c | 497.1$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 16c | 485$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb28…74f4backed Yes | 12c | 456$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe132…ca8dbacked Yes | 12c | 400.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d3…dfcdbacked Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 13c | 399.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 6c | 377.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…2a32backed Yes | 17c | 368.66$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.54 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -52%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5372…5f61backed Yes | 12c | 346$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32df…cce8backed Yes | 15c | 333.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed Yes | 12c | 320$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…398dbacked Yes | 14c | 319.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 14c | 257.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 157 | 39.5%62 W · 95 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d22…da8bbacked Yes | 12c | 227$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…9756backed Yes | 12c | 227$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aec…fdafbacked Yes | 12c | 213$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed Yes | 13c | 205.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27c1…f4acbacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +148.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca5…85edbacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…7da2backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8433…6e0fbacked Yes | 12c | 182$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…932fbacked Yes | 18c | 176.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…1690backed Yes | 12c | 175$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 15c | 161.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…b550backed Yes | 12c | 151$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 136.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 16c | 122.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…990ebacked Yes | 12c | 107$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Yes | 14c | 89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c45backed Yes | 15c | 69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff11…5643backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Retirement Plan win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Butterfly win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Forevergreen win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will The Girl Who Cried Pearls win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will The Three Sisters win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.