TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1eaa…b550

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
70
Categories scored
22
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: IPO, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category IPO at 55 out of 100; worst NBA at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+38.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.6
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$150.96
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.75 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$157.96
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$251Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$282.49
Will Melania say "School" during statement on April 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$618Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$164.24
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$274Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$273.6
Will Artemis II launch by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$111.37
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$265Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$311.04
Will "Siri" be said 5+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$209Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+132.6%+$277.02
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.25 (LOW) by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+257.1%+$131.76
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$170Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+300%+$510.75
Will "Audit" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$561Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+149.4%+$838
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$126.92
All 13 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+19.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$221Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$221.25
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$925Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+128.3%+$1,186.38
Will Israel strike 3 countries in April 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$527Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$309.69
US strikes Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$17.25
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.58
Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$380Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+198.5%+$754.79
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$469Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+132.3%+$620.7
Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$71.04
Will Israel strike 2 countries in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$671Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$670.59
Will the US not strike Iran by April 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$788Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$788.19
Will the US strike Somalia next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$272Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+163.2%+$443.3
All 11 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick51cpaid-60.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
NBA — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.32
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.68
Will the Miami Heat make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$441Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$440.8
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$191Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$191.36
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$199Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$52.92
Will Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$331Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$331.25
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$426Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$542.08
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder finish with the best record in the NBA?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$138.1
Will Anthony Davis be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$197Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$197.2
All 9 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-10.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$481.08
Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$83.04
Will Retirement Plan win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.12
Will "F1" win Best Editing at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$328Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+66.7%+$218.4
Will Rose Byrne win Best Lead Performance at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$135.28
Will Emma Stone be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+35.1%+$11.44
Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$353Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$353.15
Will Jennifer Venditti (Marty Supreme) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$23.55
All 8 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 29, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
Asian League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+130.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+51.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Portsmouth FC vs. Ipswich Town FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$212Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$212.16
Charlton Athletic FC vs. Portsmouth FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+203%+$39.53
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick34cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Villarreal CF win on 2025-12-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$139.16
Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$75.64
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Chicago Bears be eliminated in the Divisional Round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$186Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+78.6%+$146.52
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NEC win on 2026-01-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$707Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+69.5%+$491.59
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin outperform Silver in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$228Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+37%+$84.51
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$34.96
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Monaco advance to the round of 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$98.41
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CSyD Defensa y Justicia win on 2026-03-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Junaid Ahmed be the Democratic Nominee for IL-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$274Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$274.36
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$108.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Feb 17, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
St. Francis (PA) Red Flash vs. Chicago State Cougarsbacked St. Francis (PA) Red Flash · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$382Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$382.27
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Named storm forms before hurricane season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$672Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$671.66
All 1 picks, newest first.
Australian A League Inactivelast resolved May 11, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Australian A League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Australian A League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sydney FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$503Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$502.54
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will The MongolZ qualify to Blast Open Rotterdam Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$231Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$231.46
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.