World Politics · resolved market
Will Seoul have less than 40mm of precipitation in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68483965682d10cf83ac1b4bb5d1be10ae9419aa569beb2a8917f0479e85222a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 14c | 1,387$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.83 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04f…15babacked Yes | 31c | 1,287$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.03 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +75%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…b2efbacked Yes | 31c | 1,231$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.39 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 7c | 1,200$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.33 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ef…095ebacked No | 69c | 860$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…08d2backed No | 69c | 858$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.02 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…e5a3backed No | 69c | 800$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 66c | 781.04$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.21 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked No | 7c | 697.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…b550backed No | 71c | 681$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed Yes | 29c | 681$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.51 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7238…e52dbacked Yes | 14c | 621$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.06 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +93%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e0…a63bbacked Yes | 14c | 610$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb6…5ea0backed Yes | 25c | 581$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked No | 75c | 564$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed No | 75c | 557$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.75 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…d190backed Yes | 25c | 540$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddf7…5122backed Yes | 14c | 523$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +186.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…09adbacked Yes | 14c | 503$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b79…360fbacked Yes | 14c | 466$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 23cpaid | +338.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 380.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9d…9de8backed Yes | 28c | 357.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.09 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed No | 11c | 336.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 69c | 310.03$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.01 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 31c | 243.66$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.51 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…b868backed Yes | 51c | 196.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 10c | 143.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked No | 25c | 97.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked No | 27c | 92.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e76…7b84backed Yes | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3bb…fce3backed No | 20c | 68.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 32c | 64.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 58c | 63.96$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 31c | 60.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.07 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…eceabacked Yes | 76c | 58.61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26ec…682cbacked Yes | 38c | 58.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +164.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02b3…77b6backed No | 30c | 57.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2506…320dbacked No | 53c | 56.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…a80dbacked Yes | 26c | 54.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…cd72backed No | 74c | 54.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 66c | 53.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f54…682fbacked Yes | 44c | 49.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +129.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d0…e5dbbacked Yes | 79c | 45.16$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 65c | 41.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 41c | 39.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 64c | 31.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23e1…05c1backed No | 70c | 31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3274…4493backed No | 64c | 23.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 47c | 23.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…8442backed No | 66c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed Yes | 66c | 21.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 66c | 21.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e9…5c74backed Yes | 70c | 20.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b30…100fbacked No | 59c | 18.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.41per pick | 57cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Seoul have less than 40mm of precipitation in April?this page
- Will Seoul have 75mm or more of precipitation in April?No won
- Will Seoul have between 45-50mm of precipitation in April?No won
- Will Seoul have between 50-55mm of precipitation in April?No won
- Will Seoul have between 55-60mm of precipitation in April?No won
- Will Seoul have between 65-70mm of precipitation in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.