World Politics · resolved market
Will Seoul have between 50-55mm of precipitation in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x252f1c2c151db0ba258cce173cbeb25bfc04a30ee005888fbb303d6401f1514e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5214…95c9backed No | 71c | 690$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.79 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…1307backed Yes | 29c | 582$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd569…3037backed Yes | 29c | 575$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…f745backed No | 71c | 467$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…99f7backed No | 80c | 391$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked Yes | 18c | 358.79$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.34 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…c236backed Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…e748backed Yes | 20c | 206$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2103…e296backed Yes | 20c | 185$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 112$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked Yes | 45c | 44.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa1…deebbacked No | 62c | 16.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Seoul have between 50-55mm of precipitation in April?this page
- Will Seoul have 75mm or more of precipitation in April?No won
- Will Seoul have between 45-50mm of precipitation in April?No won
- Will Seoul have between 55-60mm of precipitation in April?No won
- Will Seoul have between 65-70mm of precipitation in April?No won
- Will Seoul have less than 40mm of precipitation in April?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.