NFL · resolved market
Will the Chicago Bears be eliminated in the Divisional Round?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9924c77862d19acfbbdfc9c7ad57eea1dbec44ed3483d749b1f63860b96c9852
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,062
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,076
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,062 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d38…e898backed No | 44c | 1,044$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…c453backed No | 44c | 922$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 43cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…08f5backed No | 2c | 900$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed No | 44c | 794$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90ec…62aabacked Yes | 56c | 793$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.92 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…69e5backed Yes | 56c | 691$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa355…a3a2backed No | 44c | 645$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0f…af26backed Yes | 56c | 636$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…75e7backed Yes | 56c | 617$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x636c…ea28backed No | 44c | 557$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb212…0f8ebacked Yes | 56c | 549$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c7…f199backed No | 44c | 498$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed Yes | 56c | 474$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +31%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4984…69d2backed No | 44c | 405$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…b550backed Yes | 56c | 333$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea90…0f8fbacked No | 44c | 325$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5214…95c9backed Yes | 56c | 315$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…d3aabacked Yes | 56c | 259$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +106.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…2550backed Yes | 56c | 234$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c5…4c23backed Yes | 56c | 187$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.28 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fae…6853backed No | 44c | 154$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.76 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac7…dc0bbacked Yes | 56c | 154$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed No | 36c | 138.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ec…46cebacked Yes | 56c | 124$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 46c | 120$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04d4…be7cbacked Yes | 56c | 75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5089…9754backed Yes | 63c | 66.64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a0…b7bdbacked No | 44c | 63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3df1…7ba9backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed No | 44c | 39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -74%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…5e88backed No | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 64c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…abe1backed Yes | 60c | 28.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -5.7wins | -0.33per pick | 63cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7a…da74backed No | 43c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b0…fd60backed Yes | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 65c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes | 65c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Chicago Bears be eliminated in the Divisional Round?this page
- Will the Chicago Bears be eliminated in the Conference Championship Round?No won
- Will the Chicago Bears be eliminated in the Super Bowl?No won
- Will the Chicago Bears be eliminated in the Wild Card Round?No won
- Will the Chicago Bears win the Super Bowl?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.