TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x636c…ea28

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
64
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: South American Leagues, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category South American Leagues at 54 out of 100; worst NBA at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+36.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$290Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$142.89
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$380Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$379.96
Will Netanyahu visit NYC by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$666Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$210.24
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.2
Will Israel strike 3 countries in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$29.76
Will Israel strike 2 countries in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$462Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$461.61
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+400%+$288
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$182Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+81.8%+$148.95
Will the US strike Somalia next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+163.2%+$70.06
All 9 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ryan Gosling attend the Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$169.92
Will "Marty Supreme" win no awards at the Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+400%+$336.8
Will "Marty Supreme" win exactly 1 award at the Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$179Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$179.34
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$97.58
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$265Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$169.26
Will "Frankenstein" win Best Costume Design at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$111.25
Will Joachim Trier be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$217Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$216.98
Will Good Hang with Amy Poehler win Best Podcast at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+38.9%+$7.56
Will Hannah Einbinder (Hacks) win Best Supporting Actress – Television at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$84.26
All 9 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.30per pick41cpaid-84.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
NBA — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$699Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+37%+$258.66
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$153.75
Will Karl-Anthony Towns lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$156.34
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.52
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$311Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$310.75
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win more than 43.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$219.67
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025–2026 NBA Southwest Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$218.96
Will the San Antonio Spurs win more than 44.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$30.52
Will Anthony Davis be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$30.68
All 9 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-1.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$89.3
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$132.54
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$254Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$199.76
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.08
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.68
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$115.73
Will "Macbook" be said 10+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$121.68
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$422Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+347.8%+$1,469.53
All 8 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+54.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Boxing — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+316.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Asian League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$277Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$277.02
Will Charlton Athletic FC win on 2025-12-06?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+56.3%+$70.92
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Stefon Diggs arrested by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$217Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$216.9
Will the Chicago Bears be eliminated in the Divisional Round?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$245Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$245.08
All 2 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+809.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+809.1%+$525.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-02-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$29.59
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$165.41
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.76
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.